The increase in oat acres was expected mostly to come at the expense of spring wheat. Both Strychar, who forecast a 13% increase in acres, and Mathieson, who forecast a 12% increase, gave percentages well above projections of Statistics Canada, which suggested a 6% to 7% increase in oats plantings. Statistics Canada indicated area planted to oats in 2016 totaled 2,100,000 acres.
|Randy Strychar, president of Ag Commodity Research.|
Strychar said the story of the 2016 harvest won’t find its conclusion until late summer or early fall this year. He noted while the market wasn’t behaving as if it lost 20% of production, it also unmistakably exhibited concern. He pointed out the Midwest U.S. cash oats basis recently traded to near record highs and currently was trading well above average levels, U.S. oat futures have been trading at an inverse, and Western Canadian cash oats prices remained firm versus the cash spring wheat market.