AAFC forecast area planted to all-wheat in Canada for harvest this year at 9.51 million hectares (1 hectare = 2.47 acres), up 4% from 9.126 million hectares in 2017. Harvested area was projected at 9.31 million hectares, up 4% from 8.983 million acres in 2017. AAFC projected average yield at 3.22 tonnes per hectare, signifying a return to trend yields compared with 3.34 tonnes per hectare in 2017. Canadian wheat production in 2018 was forecast at 30 million tonnes, up only 16,000 tonnes from 2017.
AAFC commented that the planted area increase resulted from a projected 5% increase in spring wheat plantings that would more than offset an 11% decrease in winter wheat seedings.
“The spring wheat area is forecast to increase because of relatively good prices for spring wheat and a shift out of winter wheat and dry peas in Western Canada,” AAFC said.
AAFC projected area planted to durum for harvest this year at 2.21 million hectares, up 5% from 2.106 million hectares in 2017. Harvested area was forecast at 2.17 million hectares, up 4% from 2.088 million hectares in 2017. Average yield was projected at 2.63 tonnes per hectare compared with 2.38 tonnes in 2017. Canadian durum production in 2018 was projected at 5.7 million tonnes, up 15% from 4.962 million tonnes in 2017 but more than 2-million-tonnes lower than the record crop in 2016 at 7.762 million tonnes.
AAFC said the larger planted area for durum was forecast because of lower carry-in stocks, relatively good prices and a shift out of lentils. The higher production forecast was attributed to the larger planted and harvested areas and a return to trend yields from the below-trend yields of 2017, which resulted from below-normal precipitation in the durum growing areas.
Canadian canola production in 2018 was projected at a record 21.7 million tonnes, up 2% from 21.313 million tonnes in 2017, the current record.
The larger forecast planted area for canola was due to “attractive expected returns compared to alternative field crops and the strong pace of sales for 2017-18,” AAFC said.
AAFC said the seeded area forecast for oats increased from 2017 “due to good U.S. oat futures levels, which will contribute to competitive pricing versus other cropping choices.”