NEW DELHI, INDIA – India is anticipating a record wheat crop in the 2024-25 marketing year on higher than initially expected yields in the country’s northern states due to favorable weather through harvest, according to a report from the Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) of the US Department of Agriculture.

With above normal monsoon rains forecast, FAS projects wheat output to reach 114 million tonnes in the April 2024-March 2025 period. That’s 3.6% higher than last year’s total of 110 million tonnes and nearly 10% higher than the 104 million tonnes harvested in 2022-23.

“Timely planting under adequate soil moisture condition, extended winter, lower incidence of pests and diseases have supported higher yields compared to the last two years,” FAS said.

The expected bumper crop comes at a critical time for India which in May reported that wheat stocks in government warehouses had reached their lowest level since 2008 with a 10% year-on-year drop. The smaller production from the previous two years resulted in the sale of record volumes from the government stockpile to boost domestic supplies and lower local prices.

FAS is also projecting slight increases in corn and rice production in 2024-25, at 37.5 million and 138 million tonnes, respectively. The rice output, if realized, would be a record.