BUENOS AIRES, ARGENTINA — Soybean production in Argentina is forecast to surge by nearly 150% in the 2023-24 marketing year as perfectly timed rains have fallen during planting season, according to a report from the Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) of the US Department of Agriculture.
The FAS projects output at 50.5 million tonnes this season, compared with 20.5 million in 2022-23, a year in which drought slashed yields and reduced planted area. The agency lowered its soybean crush estimate last year to 26 million tonnes “due to decreased export and the lowest crush operation rates in decades.” This year’s crush total is seen soaring to 40 million tonnes.
If realized, soybean production this season would be the highest since 2018-19 when the country harvested 55.8 million tonnes of the oilseed.
Regarding the 2023-24 crop, the FAS said the El Niño weather pattern finally ended the country’s worst drought in more than 60 years.
“Higher-than-average rainfall came to much of the major growing areas beginning in early November and continuing through December,” the FAS noted.
The agency revised its soybean planted area projection higher by 800,000 hectares to 17.2 million. The increase is due to the improved weather conditions and “potential economic policy changes by the new government that will encourage exports,” the FAS said.
The agency pegs 2023-24 exports at 6 million tonnes, more than three times higher than the amount shipped the previous year.
Nationwide, 79% of the corn crop had been planted as of Dec. 31, which was nearly 9% ahead of last year’s pace, it said. Nearly all the planted crop is rated in a condition of optimal or adequate.
“In conversations with local industry contacts, optimism shines through with expectations for more normal precipitation throughout the growing season,” the FAS said. “Some industry analysts expect an even larger harvest of as much as 53 million tonnes this year.”
