SYDNEY, AUSTRALIA — A third consecutive bumper grain crop is expected in Australia in the 2022-23 marketing year, according to the latest projections from IKON Commodities. 

The Sydney, Australia-based commodity services company on Aug. 29 forecast a total grains crop of more than 55 million tonnes, including a wheat crop of 35.7 million tonnes, which would be slightly lower than the 2021-22 total but 40% above the historical average.

“Although parts of Queensland and New South Wales were prevented from planting this season’s winter crop due to flooding, the net impact is that above-average soil moisture is spread across the East Coast,” IKON said. “The area lost due to water logging will prevent this season’s production from exceeding the record set last year.”

IKON’s other crop forecasts for the upcoming crop year include barley at 12.54 million tonnes, down from 13.3 million in 2021-22 but 27% above the historical average, and canola at 6.71 million tonnes, up from 6.3 million tonnes and 79% above the historical average.

After three straight drought years when wheat production fell to as low as 14.4 million tonnes in 2019-20, Australia is on track to post three consecutive years with wheat crops of 31 million tonnes or higher. The surge in production comes at a critical time when hot, dry weather has reduced output in other key producing regions and the Russia-Ukraine war has significantly restrained exports from the Black Sea region.