JAKARTA, INDONESIA — Indonesian wheat imports for marketing year 2022-23 are estimated to decrease 19.9% to 9 million tonnes from 11.23 tonnes in 2021-22, reflecting easing demand amid economic slowdowns in Indonesia’s export destination countries, according to a Global Agricultural Information Network report from the Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) of the US Department of Agriculture.
Total consumption of wheat in 2022-23 in the nation of 274 million people is estimated at 9.5 million tonnes of wheat equivalent, revised lower than the previous FAS estimate of 9.7 million tonnes. Australia was the largest wheat supplier to Indonesia, with 46.7% market share.
“Indonesia does not produce wheat domestically and is fully reliant on wheat imports to fulfill demand for wheat flour-based food and as an ingredient for poultry, aquaculture, and livestock feed,” FAS Post Jarkarta said.
Wheat consumption by feed mills in 2022-23 is estimated to decline to 1.1 million from 1.7 million tonnes in 2021-22 as feed mills use more local corn as energy sources in feed.
The Indonesian wheat flour industry is expected to continue growing. Assuming improved global economic conditions and domestic demand as well as population growth, imports of wheat for 2023-24 are forecast to increase to 10.5 million tonnes.
Meanwhile, El Niño is expected to reduce 2022-23 rice production to 52.9 million tonnes compared to the previous 2022-23 estimate of 53.5 million tonnes. In anticipation of price fluctuations, state-owned enterprise BULOG will likely fully utilize its food security mandate to import 2 million tonnes of rice in 2022-23.
According to the Indonesian Ministry of Public Works, approximately 60% of Indonesian harvested rice area is irrigated, while the remaining 40% is rain fed. With the ongoing El Niño-related dryness, farmers will be more reliant on water from reservoirs.
FAS estimates 2022-23 rice consumption to be stable at 35.3 million tonnes as rice prices remain steadier than wheat flour prices and in line with population growth. Rice consumption in 2023-24 is forecast to decline to 35.2 million tonnes with projected increases in the consumption of wheat flour-based foods by a middle class that continues to diversify its diet with Western-style foods such as bread and pasta.
