LONDON, ENGLAND – With sizeable reductions expected for corn and wheat, the International Grains Council (IGC) in its May Grain Market Report projected a 24-million-tonne month-on-month decline in total grains production for marketing year 2022-23.
“Smaller wheat, maize and sorghum harvests are projected to limit 2022-23 world total grains production to 2.251 million tonnes, down 40 million tonnes from the previous year, but still potentially the second largest ever,” the IGC said.
With forecast consumption lowered by almost the same amount, the world total grains carryout estimate for 2022-23 is down 1 million tonnes from the April projection, the report noted.
“With feed uptake curbed by elevated market prices and resultant demand rationing, total consumption is projected to drop by 8 million tonnes, to 2.279 billion tonnes, the first year-on-year contraction since 2015-16,” the IGC said.
Mostly because of a reduction for corn, total trade volumes for 2022-23 are projected 3 million tonnes lower, at 404 million tonnes, marking a second consecutive yearly decline.
Led by drawdowns in the major exporters, carryover stocks are forecast 5% lower compared to 2021-22, at 580 million tonnes.
Total grains production for the 2021-22 marketing year, which ends June 30, increased by 3 million tonnes month-on-month to a record 2.291 billion tonnes, according to IGC’s projections. However, with increased consumption, cumulative world ending stocks for the current year are seen slightly lower than before.
Global trade of total grains for the current marketing year is unchanged month-on-month, at 416 million tonnes, down by 10 million tonnes compared to 2020-21.
The report noted that global soybean production in 2021-22 is set to decline by 5% year-on-year, to 349 million tonnes, while soybeans carryover stocks are projected to decline by 20% year-on-year to 45 million tonnes. The IGC sees both production and carryover stocks rebounding in 2022-23, with output increasing by 11% to a record 387 million tonnes on potentially large crops in the United States and South America, and global ending stocks rising to 58 million tonnes.
Lifted by surging wheat prices, the IGC Grains and Oilseeds Index climbed to a record high in mid-May, before dipping slightly to 356, which is 24% higher than last year at this time.