LONDON, ENGLAND — With significant declines in production projected for corn and wheat, the International Grains Council (IGC) is forecasting global total grains output in marketing year 2022-23 to fall by 2% to 2.252 billion tonnes, marking the first contraction in five seasons. The IGC also sees carryover stocks for total grains dropping to an eight-year low at 583 million tonnes, a 4% decline from the previous year.

In its monthly Grain Market Report, released July 21, the IGC projected a 32-million-tonne decline in corn production and an 11-million-tonne reduction in wheat output in the current marketing year. The IGC said the reduction is “mainly to reflect drought stress in the European Union, including for wheat, barley and corn.”

Meanwhile, world total grains consumption is expected to drop by 3 million tonnes from the previous monthly forecast and 11 million tonnes compared with 2021-22.

“Amid tighter supplies and anticipated elevated prices, total consumption could dip slightly on lower feed use, but with food and industrial uptake seen edging higher,” the IGC said.

Although soybean production is revised downward by 4 million tonnes from the previous month to 386 million tonnes, the IGC still projects a year-over-year increase of 10% from 351 million tonnes in 2021-22. The IGC attributed the monthly decline to downgraded US production prospects. If realized, the 2022-23 soybean output would be a record.

Global rice production is forecast to increase slightly in 2022-23 to 518 million tonnes and record trade is projected at 52 million tonnes, 1 million tonnes higher than last year’s total.

The IGC’s Grains and Oilseeds Index (GOI), which measures grain and oilseed prices, fell by 10% to levels not seen since Russia invaded Ukraine in February.