LONDON, ENGLAND — Based on larger wheat and corn output, 2021-22 global grains production is forecast 3% higher than the previous year, according to the latest International Grains Council (IGC) Grain Market report released on June 23.
“With the supply gain seen outpacing growth in consumption, end-season stocks are projected to increase by 1% to 607 million tonnes, marking the first (rise in ending stocks) since 2016-17,” the IGC said.
The IGC projects a record global total grains outturn of 2.29 billion tonnes, up from 2.22 billion tonnes in 2020-21.
The IGC raised its projection for 2021-22 global soybean production by 10 million tonnes, to 351 million tonnes, but it still is well short of last year’s output of 369 million tonnes.
Linked partly to reduced shipments from the war-torn Black Sea region, total grains exports are forecast to decline by 2% in 2021-22 to 417 million tonnes. The IGC projects trade to decline even further in 2022-23 to 405 million tonnes.
Looking ahead to the 2022-23 marketing year, which begins July 1, the IGC forecasts totals grains output at 4 million tonnes higher than in its May report, but 35 million tonnes lower than in 2021-22.
The IGC said the monthly upward revision was mainly tied to “a revised maize projection for Ukraine, where acreage exceeded expectations.”
The IGC projects a 1% drop in wheat production in 2022-23 to 769 million tonnes, while it sees a more significant decline in corn output, falling nearly 3% to 1.19 billion tonnes.
On the basis of increases in Brazil and some minor producers, 2022-23 world soybean output is forecast to increase by 11% year-on-year.
Weighed predominantly by recent softer wheat prices, but with all other sub-indices also lower, the IGC Grain and Oilseeds Index fell by 5% from the previous month.