SAO PAULO, BRAZIL — The grain harvest in Brazil may reach 227.9 million tonnes in 2017-18, which if realized would be down 4.1% from the harvest of 237.7 million tonnes in 2016-17, according to a report issued last week by Conab, the official Brazilian crop bureau. Planted area, though, is expected to increase 1%.

“The weather is very favorable, expectations are better,” said Neri Geller, secretary for agricultural policy at the Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Farming (MAP). “This is the fourth survey, and with each survey, there is growth. We are expecting this trend to continue in the next surveys. And there are the results, the fall in inflation, much as a result of the productivity that happens in the field — beans, rice, the basic basket falling in price according to the expectation of the next crop.”

Conab said soybeans and maize accounted for nearly 90% of the grains produced in Brazil. Soybean output is expected to decline 3.2%, to 110.4 million tonnes in 2017-18, while maize is forecast to fall 5.6%, to 92.3 million tonnes.