WASHINGTON, D.C., U.S. — The National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) of the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) estimated wheat stocks held in all positions in the U.S. on Dec. 1, 2015, at 1.7 billion bushels, up 208.7 million bushels, or 14%, from 1.5 billion bushels in 2014. It comprised the largest Dec. 1 wheat inventory since 2010.
The Dec. 1 wheat inventory was larger than expected by the trade as both seed use and feed and residual use of wheat during the second quarter of the 2015-16 crop year were lower than earlier forecast. The USDA estimated wheat disappearance in September-November 2015 at 358.7 million bushels, down 18.8 million bushels, or 5%, from 377.5 million bushels in the same period of 2014. Wheat disappearance during the first six months of 2015-16 (June-November) was estimated at 1.06 billion bushels, down 21.1 million bushels, or 2%, from 1.08 billion bushels a year earlier.
Wheat stocks held on farms on Dec. 1, 2015, totaled 503.4 million bushels, up 30.6 million bushels, or 6%, from 472.8 million bushels in 2014. Wheat stocks in commercial hands on Dec. 1 totaled 1.2 billion bushels, up 178.08 million bushels, or 17%, from 1.05 billion bushels in 2014. On-farm wheat stocks accounted for 29% of the nation’s wheat inventory compared with 31% a year earlier.
The largest regional inventory was held in the hard red winter wheat states of the Southwest, including Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, Colorado and Nebraska. Dec. 1, 2015, wheat stocks in the Southwest totaled 614.6 million bushels, up 170.5 million bushels, or 38%, from 444.06 million bushels in 2014. Wheat disappearance in the Southwest in the crop year’s second quarter was 103.4 million bushels, up 7% from 96.7 million bushels in September-November 2014. June-November 2105 wheat disappearance was estimated at 278.5 million bushels, down 3% from 288.1 million bushels in 2014. Stocks held on farms totaled 41.9 million bushels, or 7% of the region’s total inventory.
The hard red spring wheat states of the Upper Midwest — North Dakota, South Dakota, Montana and Minnesota — held the second-largest Dec. 1 wheat inventory at 581.8 million bushels, which was up 45.09 million bushels, or 8%, from 2014. Wheat stocks held on farms were estimated at 395 million bushels, which accounted for 68% of the region’s Dec. 1 total stocks and 33% of all wheat stocks held on farms in the United States.
September-November 2015 wheat disappearance in the Upper Midwest was estimated at 127.6 million bushels, down 13.1 million bushels, or 9%, from 140.8 million bushels in 2014. June-November wheat disappearance in the region was estimated at 398.9 million bushels, up 8.08 million bushels, or 2%, from 390.8 million bushels in the first six months of 2014-15.
The Dec. 1, 2015, wheat inventory in the key soft red winter wheat region of the Central states — Missouri, Illinois, Indiana, Ohio and Michigan — was estimated at 167.3 million bushels, down 8.6 million bushels, or 5%, from 175.9 million bushels in 2014. On-farm stocks estimated at 15.05 million bushels accounted for 9% of the region’s wheat inventory. On-farm stocks accounted for 7% of the Central states’ Dec. 1 wheat inventory in 2014.
Wheat disappearance in the Central states during the second quarter of the 2015-16 crop year was estimated at 33.6 million bushels, up 3.9 million bushels, or 13%, from 29.7 million bushels in September-November 2014. June-November wheat disappearance was estimated at 87 million bushels, down 3.5 million bushels, or 4%, from 90.5 million bushels in the same period in 2014.
Dec. 1 wheat stocks in the white wheat region of the Pacific Northwest — Washington, Oregon and Idaho — were estimated at 184.7 million bushels, up 15.6 million bushels, or 9%, from 169.1 million bushels in 2014. On-farm stocks estimated at 33.2 million bushels accounted for 18% of the region’s wheat inventory.
Wheat disappearance in the Pacific Northwest in September-November 2015 was estimated at 40.5 million bushels, down 32.8 million bushels, or 45%, from 73.3 million bushels in 2014. Wheat disappearance in the first half of the 2015-16 crop year was estimated at 122.5 million bushels, down 5.9 million bushels, or 5%, from 128.5 million bushels in 2014-15.
Durum stocks held in all positions on Dec. 1 totaled 60.5 million bushels, up 16.4 million bushels, or 37%, from 44.04 million bushels in 2014. Dec. 1 on-farm stocks were estimated at 35.7 million bushels, or 59% of the total inventory.
Durum disappearance in September-November 2015 was estimated at 13.5 million bushels, down 238,000 bushels, or 2%, from 13.7 million bushels in 2014. Disappearance in June-November 2015 was estimated at 47.6 million bushels, up 16.09 million bushels, or 51%, from 31.53 bushels in 2014.