WASHINGTON, D.C., U.S. — Fiscal 2016 U.S. agricultural exports are projected at $138.5 billion, down $1 billion from the revised $139.5 billion forecast for fiscal 2015, according to the Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Trade released by the U.S. Department of Agriculture on Aug. 27. This decline is primarily due to oilseeds and products, which are down $4.4 billion as a result of lower expected soybean and soybean meal prices and reduced export volumes.

Grain and feed exports are forecast to be up $1.1 billion from fiscal 2015, largely due to higher expected wheat shipments.

Exports of livestock, poultry, and dairy products are up $600 million as higher export volumes for a number of livestock products more than offset a decline in prices.

Agricultural exports to China are forecast down $2 billion from fiscal 2015, primarily due to lower soybean values. Canada is expected to return as the largest U.S. export market for the first time since 2010.

U.S. agricultural imports in 2016 are forecast at a record $122.5 billion, $7 billion higher than fiscal 2015. Increases in import values are expected for most products in 2016, with the largest gains in horticultural, and sugar and tropical products. The U.S. agricultural trade surplus is expected to fall by $8 billion in fiscal 2016 to $16 billion. This would be the smallest surplus since 2007.

For fiscal 2015, the forecast of $139.5 billion for exports is down $1 billion from last
quarter’s forecast. Imports are down $1.5 to $115.5 billion.