“The anticipated decrease is the result of 2.6 million fewer harvested acres, and an overall yield decline of 17.6% to 44 bus per acre,” Statistics Canada said of the all wheat production forecast.
Wheat production was forecast to decline 27% in Saskatchewan, 22% in Alberta and 35% in Manitoba.
“At the time of the survey, farmers on the Prairies reported that excessive rains in late June were likely to affect harvestable area,” Statistics Canada said.
Production forecasts were based on a survey of 12,850 Canadian farmers from July 23 to Aug. 4. Final production estimates for 2014 will be released Dec. 4 and are subject to revision for two years.
Production of spring wheat was forecast at 19,972,300 tonnes, down 27% from 27,238,700 tonnes in 2013. Winter wheat production was estimated at 2,779,200 tonnes, down 27% from 3,786,400 tonnes in 2013.
Durum outturn was forecast at 4,953,200 tonnes, down 24% from 6,504,500 tonnes last year.
Canola production in 2014 was forecast at 13,908,000 tonnes, down 23% from 17,960,100 tonnes in 2013. Average canola yield was forecast at 32 bushels per acre, down 20% from last year. Canola outturn was forecast to decline 25% in Saskatchewan, 17% in Alberta and 27% in Manitoba.
Canadian corn production was forecast at 11,430,500 tonnes, down 20% from 14,193,800 tonnes in 2013.
Soybean production was forecast at a record 5,900,700 tonnes in 2014, up 14% from 5,198,400 tonnes in 2013.
Barley production was forecast at 7,163,600 tonnes, down 30% from 10,237,100 tonnes in 2013.
Oats outturn was forecast at 2,639,400 tonnes, down 32% from 3,888,000 tonnes a year ago.
Statistics Canada forecast flaxseed production at 908,100 tonnes, up 28% from 712,300 tonnes in 2013.
Sunflower seed production was seen at 78,200 tonnes, up 51% from 51,900 tonnes last year.
Production of dry field peas was forecast at 3,558,000 tonnes, down 8% from 3,849,300 tonnes in 2013.
The Statistics Canada forecasts were below average trade expectations of 28.5 million tonnes for all wheat, 5.2 million tonnes for durum, 14.5 million tonnes for canola, 7.5 million tonnes for barley and 3 million tonnes for oats.