WASHINGTON, DC, US — Wheat exports from the United States could fall to 775 million bushels in 2022-23, according to the Oct. 12 World Agricultural Supply Demand and Estimates (WASDE) projections from the US Department of Agriculture (USDA), which knocked its export figure down 50 million bushels from its September report.
If realized, this would be the lowest US wheat export level since 1971-72, according to the WASDE, which cited reduced supplies, slow pace of export sales and continued uncompetitive US export prices for the decline. This compares to 2021-22, in which the WASDE estimates the US will export 800 million bushels of wheat and 2020-21 when the US exported 994 million bushels.
US supplies were reduced on lower 2022-23 production based on the USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) Small Grains Summary Sept. 30 report that indicated reductions in both harvested area and yield. This lowered production by 133 million bushels to 1.65 billion, leaving production only minimally higher than last year.
“Partially offsetting the production decline are higher projected imports, raised 10 million bushels to 120 million, all for hard red spring,” the USDA said.
Projected ending US stocks in 2022-23 were cut 34 million bushels to 576 million, which would be the lowest since 2007-08, according to the WASDE.