WASHINGTON, DC, US — The US Department of Agriculture in its May 12 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report supported a bullish outlook for 2022-23 wheat and corn with reduced supplies for wheat, lower production for corn, and higher prices for both. But the outlook for soybeans was somewhat less bullish with projected increases in supplies, crush, exports, and carryover, although prices were forecast sharply higher.
The USDA forecast 2022 US all-wheat production at 1.73 billion bushels, up 5% from 2021, with a projected yield of 46.6 bushels per acre, up 2.3 bushels from last year. But the first survey-based forecast for 2022 winter wheat production was at 1.17 billion bushels, down 8% from 2021 and well below the average of industry expectations. The USDA said winter wheat abandonment may be at its highest since 2002 with peak levels in Texas and Oklahoma. The increase in total production will have to come from spring wheat and durum, most of which isn’t planted yet with survey-based forecasts still a couple months away. Projected wheat carryover on June 1, 2023, was forecast at 619 million bushels, down 36 million bushels from 655 million bushels in the current year. Nearby wheat futures soared 60¢ to nearly 70¢ a bushel after the report was released.
Domestic wheat use in 2022-23 was forecast at 1.11 billion bushels, down 16 million bushels from 2021-22. Forecast food use was raised slightly to 964 million bushels, up 2 million bushels from last year’s estimate. Seed use also was raised 2 million bushels, to 66 million bushels. Feed and residual use was forecast at 80 million bushels, down 20 million bushels from 2021-22. The USDA’s projected 2022-23 wheat exports were the lowest since 1971-72 at 775 million bushels, down 30 million bushels, or 3.7%, from the revised 805 million bushels in 2021-22.
World wheat production for 2022-23 was forecast at 774.83 million tonnes, down 4.46 million tonnes from the 2021-22 estimate. The reduction largely was driven by Russia’s military invasion of Ukraine, resulting in the latter’s overall diminished crop production and export opportunities. Despite embargos from several countries, Russia’s wheat exports in 2022-23 were forecast up 18% from the current year, while Ukraine’s exports were forecast down 47%. Projected 2022-23 world wheat ending stocks were reduced 5% to 267 million tonnes, their lowest in six years.
US 2022 corn production was forecast at 14.46 billion bushels, down 4.3% from 2021. Poor weather throughout the Corn Belt delaying this year’s planting schedule may reduce yields further. Corn exports in 2022-23 were forecast at 2.4 billion bushels, down 100 million bushels from this year. Carryover on Sept. 1, 2023, was projected at 1.36 billion bushels, down 80 million bushels from 1.44 billion bushels forecast for the current year.
US 2022 soybean production was projected at 4.64 billion bushels, up 5% from last year due mainly to higher harvested area. US soybean supply and use projections also expanded. Total supply was projected at 4.89 billion bushels, up 183 million bushels from 2021-22, with crush at 2.26 billion bushels, up 40 million bushels, and exports at 2.2 billion bushels, up 60 million bushels. Soybean carryover on Sept. 1, 2023, was projected at 310 million bushels, up 32% from 235 million bushels forecast for the current year.
Projected average prices of all grains and oilseeds included in the WASDE report were up sharply from 2021-22, while forecast prices for soybean meal and soybean oil were lower.