WASHINGTON, D.C., U.S. — World wheat ending stocks for 2012-13 were projected at 174.18 million tonnes, up 1.18 million tonnes from 173 million tonnes in October but down 23.71 million tonnes, or 12%, from 197.89 million tonnes in 2011-12, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) said in its Nov. 9 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.
U.S. wheat carryover on June 1, 2013, was projected at 704 million bushels, up 50 million bushels, or 8%, from 654 million bushels as the October projection but down 39 million bushels, or 5%, from 743 million bushels in 2012. The projected U.S. 2013 wheat carryover was above the average expected by the trade of 666 million bushels.
Global 2012-13 wheat production was projected at 651.43 million tonnes, down 1.62 million tonnes from October and down 44.63 million tonnes, or 6%, from an upwardly revised 696.06 million tonnes the previous year. Global wheat use was projected at 675.14 million tonnes, down 3.08 million tonnes from October and down 20.98 million tonnes, or 3%, from an upwardly revised 696.12 million tonnes in 2011-12. World exports were projected at 132.69 million tonnes, up 1.82 million tonnes from 130.87 million tonnes in October and down 23.57 million tonnes, or 15%, from a downwardly revised 156.26 million tonnes in the prior year.
The USDA reported significantly lower ending stocks for a number of countries that compete for export tonnes with the U.S.
Australia’s 2012-13 ending stocks were projected at 4.64 million tonnes, down 200,000 tonnes from 4.84 million tonnes in October and down 1.92 million tonnes, or 29%, from 6.56 million tonnes in 2012.
Russia’s 2012-13 ending stocks were projected at 4.94 million tonnes, down 500,000 tonnes from 5.44 million tonnes in October and down 5.50 million tonnes, or 53%, from 10.44 million tonnes in 2012.
Ukraine’s 2012-13 ending stocks were projected at 2.96 million tonnes, down 1.5 million tonnes from 4.46 million tonnes in October and down 2.2 million tonnes, or 43%, from 5.16 million tonnes in 2012.
“Global wheat trade is raised for 2012-13, reflecting the continuation of strong shipments from the Black Sea region and India, and the growing competitiveness of wheat from the EU-27,” the USDA said. “Exports are raised 2 million tonnes for Ukraine, 1 million tonnes each for E.U.-27 and Russia, and 500,000 tonnes for India. Partly offsetting these increases is a 1.5-million-tonne reduction for Australia with the smaller expected crop and the 1.4-million-tonne reduction projected for U.S. exports.”