BRASILIA, BRAZIL — The first forecast by the National Supply Company (Conab) for Brazil’s 2022-23 grain and oilseed harvest projects total production of 308 million tonnes, up from this year’s estimated total of 272 million tonnes. Conab foresees rising output for corn, soybeans and rice.
“Despite the increase in production costs, the crops still have good liquidity and profitability for the Brazilian producer,” said Guilherme Ribeiro, president of Conab.
These factors influence the upward trend in the area destined for soybeans, corn and cotton, as shown in the 2022-23 Agricultural Perspectives, released on Aug. 24 by Conab.
For soybeans, Conab foresees record production of 150.36 million tonnes for the coming season.
“Grain prices should remain attractive, as world supply and demand for the oilseed remain adjusted, reflecting a growth trend of 3.54% in area for the crop, which could reach 42.4 million hectares,” Conab said. “The productivity of the 2022-23 cycle should show recovery in relation to the current crop after the climatic problems registered in the southern states of the country and in part of Mato Grosso do Sul. With the expected improvement in productivity, Conab estimates that the greater availability of grain should provide exports of around 92 million tonnes, an increase of 22.2% compared to the 2021-22 harvest, a record for the crop.”
Conab sees a reduction in cultivated rice area in the upcoming season but still higher output.
“With the high cost of production, farmers tend to opt for crops that have better estimates of profitability and liquidity, such as corn and soybeans,” Conab said. “Even so, production in the 2022-23 crop should be around 11.2 million tonnes, given the possibility of a recovery in productivity compared to 2021-22, which suffered from the availability of water resources for its good development.”
For corn, total production of 125.5 million tonnes is forecast by Conab. The agency forecasts a slight drop in area, with a negative variation of 0.6%, since the cereal competes with soybeans. However, with a possible recovery in productivity, after the water shortage in important producing regions in the 2021-22 season, production could reach 28.98 million tonnes, Conab said. In the second corn harvest, an increase in both area and productivity is projected, which could result in a harvest of 94.53 million tonnes, an increase of 8.2% compared to the 2021-22 harvest.
“The market scenario does not show a significant downward trend for corn prices since the scenario points to demand and supply still adjusted for next year,” said Sergio De Zen, director of agricultural information and agricultural policies at Conab. “As a result, margins for producers remain positive, despite high production costs. In addition, it must be remembered that in the last two harvests, the climate was a variable of great influence for the development of the culture.”