LONDON, ENGLAND — Although global grain stocks are forecast to decline only fractionally to 600 million tonnes in the 2021-22 marketing year, higher consumption is expected to drop the stocks-to-use ratio to an eight-year low of 26%, according to the latest International Grains Council Grain Market Review report released on Oct. 21.

Total grains output is projected to increase by 79 million tonnes year-on-year, with an 84-million-tonne increase in corn production leading the way, but consumption also is expected to rise in 2021-22 by 64 million tonnes, led by a 54-million-tonne increase in corn use.

The IGC raised its forecast for total grains production by 2 million tonnes from the previous monthly forecast to 2.290 billion tonnes. Included in that total were increases in corn, wheat and sorghum output.

Led by higher forecasts for wheat and barley trade, only partly offset by a decline in corn, global grain exports are predicted at 421 million tonnes in 2021-22, an increase of 4 million tonnes from the previous month.

Global soybean production was unchanged from the September report, at a record 380 million tonnes, while trade is projected to decline by 100,000 tonnes. However, the export total of 170 million tonnes would still be 5% higher year-on-year.

On the basis of an increased outlook for shipments in Asia, the forecast for world rice trade in the 2021-22 marketing year is projected to increase 4% year-on-year to a record 48 million tonnes. A record also is expected in rice production at 513 million tonnes, up 6 million tonnes from a year ago.

The IGC’s Grains and Oilseeds Index was only fractionally higher this month at 282, as weaker soybean prices were offset by slight gains in the other grains.