SILVER SPRING, MARYLAND, US — The US Department of Agriculture’s National Organic’s Program (NOP) will end its agreement with India’s Agriculture and Processed Food Products Export Development Authority (APEDA), which could potentially challenge organic soybean supply, according to Mercaris, the organic and non-GMO trading platform and market information company.
“India is by far the largest supplier of organic soy products to US markets,” said Ryan Koory, director of economics for Mercaris. “We estimate that they provided 42% of total US organic soybean and meal supplies over the 2019-20 marketing year. To put this bluntly, organic soy imports from India over 2019-20 were nearly double US production during that same period.”
Koory does not anticipate any market implications to be felt until about August 2021, affecting the supplies for the 2021-22 marketing year.
Indian imports of organic soybean meal increased 90% year-over-year through January 2020-21, according to Mercaris.
“In our October commodity outlook, we outlined a stable US organic soybean market following a slight increase in imports from India this year,” Koory said. “That increase could easily be accomplished by April given the current pace of imports, avoiding any significant shortfall for supplies in this marketing year.”
The NOP will allow for recertification until July 12, but it is unknown how much of India’s organic market will do so before the deadline and how that will impact organic soybean supply.