WASHINGTON, D.C., U.S. — The U.S. Department of Agriculture, in its Feb. 11 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, made minor changes from its January forecasts that mostly were focused on exports.
USDA carryover forecasts for U.S. wheat and soybeans were below the average of trade expectations but the corn forecast was above. U.S. wheat, corn and soybean futures were trading modestly lower shortly after the report was released at 11 a.m. Central Time.
Report highlights follow.
U.S. wheat carryover lower:
The carryover of U.S. wheat in June 1, 2020, was forecast at 940 million bushels, down 25 million bushels, or 2.6%, from January and down 13% from 1.080 billion bushels in 2018-19. The change from January was the result of a 25-million-bushel increase in exports, forecast at 1 billion bushels in 2019-20, and compared with 936 million bushels in 2018-19. June 1, 2020, ending stocks by class were forecast at 484 million bushels for hard red winter wheat, down 5 million bushels from January, at 249 million bushels for hard red spring, down 15 million bushels, at 106 million bushels for soft red winter, unchanged, at 80 million bushels for white wheat, down 5 million bushels, and at 21 million bushels for durum, unchanged.
“The only supply or use category that was changed this month was a 25-million-bushel increase in exports reflecting growing competitiveness in international markets,” the USDA said.
U.S. corn carryover unchanged:
U.S. corn carryover on Sept. 1, 2020, was forecast at 1.892 billion bushels, unchanged from January but down 15% from 2.221 billion bushels in 2018-19. Corn exports in 2019-20 were forecast at 1.725 billion bushels, down 50 million bushels from January, “reflecting the slow pace of shipments through January,” the USDA said. A like increase in forecast use of corn for ethanol, forecast at 5.425 billion bushels, offset the reduction in exports, resulting in no net change to carryover. There were no other changes from January for corn.
U.S. soybean carryover lower:
The carryover of U.S. soybeans on Sept. 1, 2020, was projected at 425 million bushels, down 50 million bushels, or 11%, from January and down 53% from 909 million bushels in 2019. The reduction was based on a like increase in 2019-20 exports, forecast at 1.825 billion bushels, up 2.8% from January and up 4.4% from 1.748 billion bushels in 2018-19, “partly reflecting increased imports for China,” the USDA said. There were no other changes from January in soybean supply and use forecasts, but the average price paid to farmers in 2019-20 was lowered 25¢, to $8.75 per bushel.
Key world supply/demand data:
World wheat ending stocks were forecast at 288.03 million tonnes in 2019-20, down 50,000 tonnes from January but up 9.76 million tonnes from 2018-19. World wheat exports were forecast at 182.82 million tonnes, up 1.75 million tonnes from January as higher forecast exports for the United States, Kazakhstan and the European Union more than offset lower exports from Canada and Pakistan.
Global corn ending stocks were forecast at 296.84 million tonnes, down 970,000 tonnes from January and down 23.63 million tonnes, or 7%, from 320.47 million tonnes in 2018-19.
World soybean ending stocks were forecast at 98.86 million tonnes, up 2.19 million tonnes from January but down 12.36 million tonnes, or 11%, from 111.22 million tonnes in 2018-19.