WASHINGTON, DC, US — The US Department of Agriculture on April 9, in its April World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, raised its forecasts for 2019-20 ending stocks of wheat, corn and soybeans. In each case, the new forecasts were above trade expectations.
The USDA forecast the carryover of wheat on June 1, 2020, at 970 million bushels, up 30 million bushels from the March projection but down 110 million bushels, or 10%, from 1.080 billion bushels in 2019. The higher carryover projection reflected a 15-million-bushel reduction in forecast 2019-20 feed and residual use of wheat to 135 million bushels and a 15-million-bushel reduction in projected 2019-20 wheat exports to 985 million bushels.
The cut in the wheat export forecast was tied to the recent slowing in the pace of shipments and prices that have become uncompetitive in many international import markets.
The USDA forecast the carryover of corn on Sept. 1, 2020, at 2.092 billion bushels, up 200 million bushels from March but down 129 million bushels, or 6%, from 2.221 billion bushels in 2019.
The USDA raised its forecast for feed and residual use of corn in 2019-20 by 150 million bushels, to 5.675 billion bushels, but it lowered its forecast for use of corn in the manufacture of ethanol by 375 million bushels, to 5.050 billion bushels. The lower ethanol use forecast was based on the unprecedented decline in ethanol production and motor gasoline consumption resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic.
The 2019-20 corn export forecast was unchanged at 1.725 billion bushels.
The USDA projected the carryover of soybeans on Sept. 1, 2020, at 480 million bushels, up 55 million bushels from the March forecast but down 429 million bushels, or 47%, from 909 million bushels in 2019. The USDA raised its soybean crush forecast for 2019-20 by 10 million bushels, to 2.125 billion bushels, because of strong demand for soybean meal. Soybean exports in 2019-20 were forecast at 1.775 billion bushels, down 50 million bushels from the March outlook. Soybean exports were lowered because of strong competition from Brazil.