LONDON, ENGLAND — The International Grains Council (IGC) on Aug. 23 raised its forecast for total grains production in 2018-19 to 2.063 billion tonnes, up from 2.059 billion tonnes in July but down from 2.092 billion tonnes forecast for 2017-18.
Total grains consumption is forecast at 2.129 billion tonnes, up from 2.128 billion tonnes in July and compared with 2.107 billion tonnes in 2017-18.
The forecast for total grains carryover stocks was raised to 538 million tonnes from 532 million tonnes a month ago and down from 604 million tonnes in 2017-18.
“Because of adverse weather, there are further cuts to crop estimates in the E.U. (down 9 million tonnes month over month) and Australia (down 3 million tonnes), but these are outweighed by gains elsewhere, including for the U.S. (up 12 million tonnes), Ukraine (up 2 million tonnes) and Argentina (up 2 million tonnes),” the IGC noted in the report. “Grains consumption is edged up month over month, mainly on higher feeding, as an increase for maize outweighs reductions for wheat and barley. With a larger estimate for world opening inventories, the projected end-2018-19 carryover is raised by 6 million tonnes, to 538 million tonnes, still a steep year-on-year contraction of 66 million. As a cut in anticipated wheat shipments is balanced by increases for maize and barley, the forecast for total grains trade is unchanged, at an all-time peak of 370 million tonnes.”
Corn production in 2018-19 is forecast at 1.064 billion tonnes, up from 1.052 billion tonnes in July and up from 1.045 billion tonnes in 2017-18. Consumption is forecast at 1.105 billion tonnes, up from 1.098 billion tonnes in July and compared with 1.078 billion tonnes in 2017-18.
Global wheat production in 2018-19 is forecast at 716 million tonnes, down from 721 million tonnes in July and compared with 758 million tonnes forecast for 2017-18. Consumption also was forecast lower, at 734 million tonnes, which compared with 739 million tonnes a month ago. The IGC forecast 2017-18 global wheat consumption at 736 million tonnes.
Soybean production in 2018-19 is forecast at 366 million tonnes, up from 359 million tonnes in early July and up from 338 million tonnes in 2017-18. Consumption is forecast at 357 million tonnes, up from 356 million tonnes and 344 million a year ago.
Rice production in 2018-19 is forecast at 491 million tonnes, unchanged from July, and up from 488 million tonnes in 2017-18. Rice consumption is forecast lower, at 492 million tonnes, which compares with 493 million tonnes in July and 487 million tonnes in 2017-18.
The IGC Grains and Oilseeds Index (GOI) was virtually unchanged, easing 0.1%, the IGC said.
“The IGC GOI was unchanged month over month, as net gains in wheat and barley export prices were countered by late-month declines in soybeans,” the IGC said. “Price weakness during the second half of August was mainly tied to bearishly interpreted elements of USDA’s WASDE report, outside market influences and excellent U.S. rowcrop yield prospects.”