China produces most of the meat it consumes, and the dietary change drew more of the country’s land into production of feed, as evidenced by corn acreage surpassing rice area in recent years. However, domestic feed supplies have been unable to meet soaring demand, causing imports of soybeans and other feed ingredients to surge, the FAS said. Between 1990 and 2015, production of meat and poultry nearly tripled, with pork dominating more than two-thirds of the output. Concurrently, demand for soybeans (mostly for meal and oil) expanded more than 900% during the last 25 years, while soybean production only grew 11%. To bridge the rapidly-widening gap between domestic production and soaring consumption, imports grew from virtually nothing in 1990 to 82 million tonnes in 2015, which was greater than 60% of total world trade, according to the FAS.
According to the report, the U.S. is the largest supplier to China with a 22% market share. Feed ingredients such as soybeans, coarse grains, distillers dried grains with solubles (DDGs), and other feeds and fodders constitute more than three-fourths of U.S. exports to China. These commodities destined for the livestock and poultry industries have been important drivers of China’s impressive import growth, leading China to become the largest U.S. agricultural market in 2010, the FAS said.
U.S. agricultural exports to China peaked in 2012 at $25.9 billion and have declined since; current year-to-date shipments are down 26% from last year. China’s slowing economy and bulging stocks are key factors driving the decline, as well as a strong U.S. dollar, making American products relatively more expensive, according the FAS. In recent years, China’s restructuring toward a more consumer-oriented economy has led to a slowdown of gross domestic product (GDP) growth, which is expected to be 6% this year, down from 10.6% in 2010 and the lowest rate since 1990, the report said.
Although China accepts that imports are necessary to help meet surging demand, it does not hesitate to use border measures and other tools to control import flows to protect domestic interests, the FAS said. Exports of DDGs from the U.S. are currently facing a new round of antidumping investigations, after China launched an earlier investigation in 2010 that was subsequently dropped in 2012. These actions create uncertainties for traders and negatively affect U.S. exports, according to the report. China’s 2015 Food Safety Law and the Facility and Product Registration Requirement for all overseas feed and food manufacturers could pose additional scientifically and legally unjustifiable barriers on trade, according to the report. At a minimum, the myriad laws and measures are expected to raise the transaction cost of doing business in China.