LONDON, ENGLAND — Russia, the world’s largest wheat exporter, is projected to export a record 53 million tonnes in the current marketing year, giving it a global market share of 26%, the highest in its history, according to the latest International Grains Council (IGC) Grain Market Report.
The figure is well ahead of the second largest exporter in 2023-24, the European Union, which is forecast to ship 35 million tonnes. Russia is the only country among the world’s top wheat exporters expected to increase its outgo from the previous year, with the EU, Canada, Australia and the United States all reducing shipments, according to the report.
If realized, Russia’s export total will be more than double the amount it shipped 10 years ago. It has led the world in wheat exports five of the last six years.
Two years ago, Russia invaded neighboring Ukraine, a top 10 wheat exporter, and the conflict is ongoing. Remarkably, even as Russia targets port grain facilities on the Black Sea and the Danube River, Ukraine has kept exports near its five-year average, with this year’s total expected to pass 17 million tonnes.
Russia and Ukraine are projected to see decreases in wheat exports in 2024-25 due to weather-related production declines, the IGC said. Global exports for the coming marketing year are expected to decline by 4.5% to 196 million tonnes, according to IGC’s projections.
