CANBERRA, AUSTRALIA — Favorable price expectations and larger planted area are driving Australia’s canola production to a fourth straight banner season in 2024-25, according to a report from the Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) of the US Department of Agriculture.

If realized, canola production of 6.5 million tonnes would be 14% above the estimate for the previous marketing year and third-largest crop on record, according to the Global Agricultural Information Network report released April 8.

“Soil moisture conditions in the canola growing regions, now at the start of the planting period, are broadly better than at the same time the previous year, and rainfall forecasts for the coming months are around average,” the FAS said. “The canola yield is forecast to be slightly above average, so the main driver of the increased production is the expectation of an increase in the planted area.”

The canola planted area is projected to rise to 3.8 million hectares for 2024-25, up from 3.5 million hectares in 2023-24, mainly due to more favorable price expectations compared to wheat and barley, which are also grown in the winter cropping season.

Canola exports in 2024-25 are forecast at 5.1 million tonnes, up 16% from 4.4 million tonnes, after a 100,000-tonne increase in the forecasted crush volume to 1.2 million tonnes. Canola oil exports are forecast to grow by 21% to 230,000 tonnes in 2024-25 and would be the highest on record.

Production of canola meal, prized as a supplementary feed ingredient, is projected to increase to 696,000 tonnes in 2024-25, up from an estimated 638,000 tonnes in 2023-24, itself a 10% increase from 2022-23. If realized, 2024-25 would set a canola meal production record.

With the canola crush forecast to increase in 2024-25, canola oil production is forecast to rise to 495,000 tonnes, 9% above the estimate of 454,000 tonnes for the previous year.