BUENOS AIRES, ARGENTINA – Due to widespread dry conditions, Argentina’s wheat production forecast for the 2023-24 marketing year has been revised lower in the most recent Global Agricultural Information Network report from the US Department of Agriculture’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS).

The FAS dropped its projections for Argentine wheat output by 2 million tonnes from the previous forecast to 14.5 million tonnes. If realized, the total would still be 2 million tonnes higher than the country’s 2022-23 drought-stricken crop. Argentina, typically the largest wheat producer and exporter in South America, is in the midst of a three-year stretch of dry conditions.

“Analysts and producers are still evaluating the negative impact of frosts in early October, which could drop production even further,” the FAS said.

The average yield is estimated at 2.6 tonnes per hectare, 13% lower than the average yield of the past decade, the report said.

Wheat exports were also adjusted downward by the FAS to 10 million tonnes, including flour products. Although 1.5 million tonnes lower than the previous estimate, the projected shipments would still be significantly higher than in 2022-23, when only 3.9 million tonnes were exported. Argentina exported 16 million tonnes of wheat in 2021-22.