BRASILIA, BRAZIL — Following a record year in grain production, Brazil’s output in the 2023-24 marketing year is forecast to dip slightly, mainly due to an expected 9% decline in the country’s corn crop, according to a report from the food supply and statistics company CONAB.
If realized, the 319.5 million tonnes of overall grain production would still be second largest ever. If conditions are optimal and yields increase, it could challenge last year’s record, CONAB said.
“We have a production projection lower than the consolidated total in the (2022-23) harvest, but it is an initial perspective higher than what we recorded at the same time last year,” said Edegar Pretto, president of CONAB. “This indicates we may have another record harvest, depending on the adjustments we make during the development of crops.”
Corn production is pegged at 119.8 million tonnes, CONAB said, as harvest area is projected to fall by nearly 5% to 21.2 million hectares.
A 3% increase in soybean acreage, to 45.3 million hectares, is driving an expected 5% increase in output, to 162.4 million tonnes, in 2023-24, CONAB said.
Rice production is forecast to rebound to 11.3 million tonnes, a nearly 13% increase, which CONAB said is primarily due to a 10% increase in planted area. It noted that the increase in acreage is influenced by both the expectation of higher prices and reduced production costs.
“In addition, the El Niño phenomenon tends to influence a likely reduction in soybean area in low-lying areas due to the expectation of greater rainfall intensity,” said Silvio Porto, director of agricultural policy and information at CONAB. “As a result, the producer will tend to prioritize rice, which is more resistant to flooding.”
