BUENOS AIRES, ARGENTINA — Argentina’s drought-scarred soybean crop is estimated at 21.25 million tonnes for marketing year 2022-23, a further downward revision in the latest Global Agricultural Information Network report from the Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) of the US Department of Agriculture.

In April, FAS Post Buenos Aires was projecting the soybean harvest at 23.9 million tonnes, the lowest in 24 years and what also would be the lowest yield output in almost 50 years. The FAS said lower-than-expected yields pushed its current estimate 3.75 million tonnes under the USDA’s official projection in the July 12 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report.

“Post’s estimate is based on interviews with local market participants, traders and farmers who report that final yields were lower than anticipated,” the FAS said. “Post’s lower production estimate is reflected in lower expectations for crush, domestic consumption and ending stocks.”

While soybean crush is estimated at 29.5 million tonnes in 2022-23, it is expected to rebound to 41 million tonnes in 2023-24. Domestic consumption is seen at 35.1 million tonnes in 2022-23 but recovering to 47.3 million in the following marketing season. Imports in 2022-23 are expected to be 11 million tonnes but fall to 4 million tonnes next year.

Soybean sales have been driven primarily by government programs offering exchange rate incentives, and farmers are holding remaining soybeans in anticipation of similar future programs. Precipitation levels have improved in recent months across much of the growing region.

Better news is on the horizon for the world’s top exporter of soybean meal. The FAS projects a recovery in soybean production in 2023-24 to 50.5 million tonnes on 16.9 million hectares based on a return to normal weather patterns.