WASHINGTON, DC, US — The US Department of Agriculture in its March 8 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report made no changes to its domestic wheat outlook for 2022-23 but said the global wheat outlook was for slightly smaller supplies, increased trade and consumption and lower ending stocks compared with February.
The USDA forecast the 2022-23 world wheat supply at 1.060 billion tonnes, down 110,000 tonnes from the February projection. Supplies were lowered on a decrease in beginning stocks (mostly on an increase for China’s 2020-21 feed and residual use), which more than offset an increase in world wheat production.
The USDA forecast 2022-23 world wheat beginning stocks at 271.45 million tonnes, down 5.25 million tonnes from the February outlook. The largest decrease was attributed to China, down 5 million tonnes from 136.76 million tonnes.
World wheat production was forecast at 788.94 million tonnes, up 5.14 million tonnes from February and up 9.73 million tonnes from 779.21 million tonnes in 2021-22. Production forecasts were raised for Argentina (up 400,000 tonnes, to 12.9 million), Australia (up 1 million tonnes, to 39 million), Brazil (up 500,000 tonnes, to 10.4 million), India (up 1 million tonnes, to 104 million) and Kazakhstan (up 2.4 million tonnes, to 16.4 million).
The USDA projected world wheat consumption in 2022-23 at 793.63 million tonnes, up 2.03 million tonnes from the February forecast and up 920,000 tonnes from 792,71 million tonnes in 2021-22.
The USDA forecast world wheat exports at 213.93 million tonnes, up 980,000 tonnes from the February outlook, and up 11.06 million tonnes from 2021-22.
The USDA projected world wheat ending stocks at 267.20 million tonnes, down 2.14 million tonnes from the February forecast and down 4.5 million tonnes, or 1.6%, from 271.45 million tonnes in 2021-22. The record for world wheat ending stocks was 297.61 million tonnes in 2019-20.
The USDA forecast the carryover of US wheat on June 1, 2023, at 568 million bushels, unchanged from the February forecast, but down 19% from 698 million bushels in 2022. The all-wheat carryover was within the range of pre-report trade expectations but below the average forecast.
By class, the 2023 carryover was forecast at 273 million bushels for hard red winter wheat, 120 million bushels for hard red spring wheat, 102 million bushels for soft red winter wheat, 45 million bushels for white wheat and 27 million bushels for durum wheat, all unchanged from February.