MOSCOW, RUSSIA — Combined wheat exports from Russia and Ukraine are forecast to decline by 12% due to the military conflict between the two countries, the US Department of Agriculture said in its monthly WASDE report.
In addition to revising its export projections lower from its last report, the USDA said countries that traditionally rely on wheat supplies from the Black Sea region will import less wheat and face higher prices for the foreseeable future.
Countries feeling the biggest impact will include members of the European Union, Turkey, Egypt, Afghanistan, Algeria, Kenya, Pakistan, Tanzania and Yemen.
The report said exports from Russia and Ukraine, two of the world’s top four wheat suppliers with a combined 30% of the market, will decline by 7 million tonnes from USDA’s estimate before the invasion to 52 million tonnes.
“Exports are lowered for Ukraine by 4 million tonnes to 20 million, as the conflict in that country is expected to disrupt exports from the Black Sea region,” the USDA said in the report. “Russia exports are reduced 3 million tonnes to 32 million tonnes as vessel transportation is expected to be constrained by the conflict and the imposition of economic sanctions.”
The USDA indicated in the report that Australia and India, both of which harvested bumper wheat crops this year, will be able to partially make up for the export shortfall from the Black Sea.