WASHINGTON, DC, US — The US Department of Agriculture in its July World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates projected the carryover of wheat on June 1, 2022, at 665 million bushels, down 105 million bushels from the June outlook and down 179 million bushels, or 21%, from 844 million bushels in 2021. The 2022 carryover as forecast would be the smallest since 2014.
The 2021-22 carry-in supply at 844 million bushels was down 8 million from the previous estimate. But standing out in the wheat supply-and-demand forecasts was a 152-million-bushel reduction in the USDA’s production projection for 2021 to 1.746 billion bushels because of the drought ravaging the spring wheat areas of the northern Plains and the Pacific Northwest; the winter wheat production estimate was raised.
The all-wheat production forecast for 2021 was down 80 million bushels from 1.826 billion bushels as the 2020 outturn. It would be the smallest all-wheat crop since 1.741 billion bushels in 2017.
US wheat imports in 2021-22 were forecast at 145 million bushels, up 20 million from June and up 45 million bushels from 2020-21. The total US wheat supply in the current year was projected at 2.735 billion bushels, down 140 million bushels from June and down 219 million bushels, or 7%, from 2.954 billion bushels in 2020-21.
Domestic use of wheat in 2021-22 was forecast at 1.195 billion bushels, down 10 million from June but up 76 million bushels from 2020-21. The adjustment from June was because of a 10-million-bushel reduction in forecast feed and residual use of wheat to 170 million bushels.
US wheat exports in 2021-22 were projected at 875 million bushels, down 25 million bushels from the June forecast and down 117 million bushels, or 12%, from 992 million bushels in 2020-21. Exports were forecast to be the lowest since 2015-16.
The USDA’s July WASDE contained the first 2021-22 forecasts by wheat class of the season. Only in the case of soft red winter wheat were 2021-22 ending stocks forecast to be higher than in 2020-21. Ending stocks for the other wheat classes were forecast to be lower in 2021-22 than in 2020-21.
Spring wheat supply-and-demand forecasts stood out. Because of the drought, the hard red spring wheat crop was forecast at 305 million bushels, down 42% from 530 million bushels in 2020. Spring wheat production was forecast to be the lowest since 181 million bushels in 1988.
The carryover of hard red spring wheat on June 1, 2022, was forecast at 119 million bushels, down 49% from 235 million bushels in 2021. It would be the smallest hard red spring wheat carryover since 68 million bushels in 2008.