WASHINGTON, DC, US — A panel of soft wheat millers addressing the virtual Spring Conference of the North American Millers’ Association on April 20 forecast soft red winter wheat production in the United States in 2021 at 332.701 million bushels, up 66.466 million bushels, or 25%, from 266.235 million bushels in 2020 and compared with 286 million bushels as the recent five-year average outturn.
Grover Van Hoose, merchandising manager, grain, The Mennel Milling Co., was panel chairman and gave the forecast for the Central states region. Van Hoose was joined by Shawn Branstetter, wheat merchandiser, The Andersons, Inc., who provided the forecast for the Mid-Atlantic states; Carl Schwinke, vice president, grain supply, Siemer Milling Co., who shared his projections for the Midwest crop; Sam Doering, soft red winter wheat director, Ardent Mills, LP, who reported on the Southeast; and Mark Rossol, manager, soft wheat, The Andersons, who covered the states of the South, the Mississippi Delta and Southwest.
The panelists forecast production to be higher than in 2020 in each of the major soft red winter wheat regions.
Van Hoose forecast soft red winter wheat production in the Central states of Indiana, Michigan, Ohio and Wisconsin at 109.154 million bushels, up 27.573 million bushels, or 34%, from 81.581 million bushels in 2020. Van Hoose forecast production to be higher in each state.
Schwinke forecast the outturn in the Midwest states of Illinois, Kentucky and Missouri at 103.887 million bushels, up 24.396 million bushels, or 31%, from 79.491 million bushels in 2020. As in the Central states, each state in the Midwest was forecast to see a significant increase in production.
Branstetter forecast production in the Mid-Atlantic states — Delaware, Maryland, New Jersey, New York, and Pennsylvania — at 38.145 million bushels, up 1.198 million bushels, or 3%, from 36.947 million bushels last year.
Doering projected the soft red winter wheat crop in the Southeast — North Carolina, South Carolina, and Virginia — at 35.808 million bushels, up 2.241 million bushels, or 7%, from 33.567 million bushels in 2020.
Rossol projected production across the South, the Mississippi Delta and Southwest — Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Mississippi, Oklahoma, Tennessee and Texas — at 45.707 million bushels, up 13.93 million bushels, or 44%, from 31.777 million bushels in 2020.
The panelists also forecast soft white winter wheat production nationwide in 2021 at 249.479 million bushels, up 15.511 million bushels, or 7%, from 233.968 million bushels in 2020.
Most soft white wheat is grown in the Pacific Northwest. Doering projected the soft white winter wheat crop in that region at 236.948 million bushels, up 17.843 million bushels, or 8%, from 219.105 million bushels in 2020.