WASHINGTON, DC, US — A bevy of reports from the US Department of Agriculture on Jan. 12 were viewed as bullish for grain and oilseed futures with the USDA data near or below the average of many pre-report trade expectations.
Chicago corn, soybean and wheat futures, as well as Kansas City and Minneapolis wheat contracts all surged after the mostly bullish USDA reports, posting fresh contract and six-year highs in most cases, including corn futures up the daily trading limit of 25¢ a bushel.
The USDA forecasts of average prices paid to farmers for wheat, corn and soybeans in 2020-21 all were raised from the December forecasts.
World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates:
Carryover of all wheat on June 1, 2021, was forecast at 836 million bushels, down 26 million bushels, or 3%, from the December forecast and down 19% from 1.028 billion bushels in 2020.
Corn carryover on Sept. 1, 2021, was forecast at 1.552 billion bushels, down 150 million bushels, or 9%, from December and down 19% from 1.919 billion bushels a year earlier.
Soybean carryover on Sept. 1, 2021, was forecast at 140 million bushels, down 35 million bushels, or 20%, from December and down 73% from 525 million bushels in 2020.
The averages of trade expectations were 859 million bushels for wheat, 1.599 billion bushels for corn and 139 million bushels for soybeans.
Crop Production, 2020 Summary:
Corn production in 2020 was estimated at 14.182 billion bushels, up 4% from 2019 but down 2.2% from the November estimate based on lower average yield at 172 bushels per acre, down 3.8 bushels from November, and harvested area at 82.467 million acres, down 60,000 acres. The average of trade expectations for corn production was 14.470 billion bushels, with the USDA estimate even below the full range of individual trade expectations.
Soybean production was estimated at 4.135 billion bushels, up 16% from 2019 but down 0.8% from the prior estimate as lower average yield of 50.2 bushels per acre, down 0.5 bushel, more than offset higher harvested area of 82.318 million acres, up 29,000 acres. The average of trade expectations for soybean production was 4.158 billion bushels.
Stocks of all wheat on Dec. 1, 2020, were estimated at 1.674 billion bushels, down 9% from a year earlier, including 483 million bushels on farms and 1.190 billion bushels in commercial storage. Indicated September-November wheat disappearance was 484 million bushels, down 4% from the same period a year earlier.
Durum stocks were estimated at 61.250 million bushels, down 5% from a year ago.
Corn stocks on Dec. 1, 2020 were estimated at 11.322 billion bushels, down slightly from a year ago, including on-farm stocks at 7.046 billion bushels and off-farm stocks at 4.276 billion bushels. Indicated September-November disappearance was 4.78 billion bushels, up 6% from the same period a year earlier.
Soybean stocks on Dec. 1, 2020, were estimated at 2.933 billion bushels, down 10% from Dec. 1, 2019, including 1.308 billion bushels on farms and 1.625 billion bushels off farms. Indicated September-November disappearance was 1.73 billion bushels, up 43% from the same period a year earlier.
Winter Wheat and Canola Seedings:
US winter wheat planted for harvest in 2021 was estimated at 31.991 million acres, up 1.576 million acres, or 5%, from 2020. Hard red winter wheat seeded area was estimated at 22.3 million acres, up 4.4%, soft red winter area at 6.23 million acres, up 12%, and white winter wheat area at 3.48 million acres, down 0.3%.
Total winter wheat seeded area was one of the few USDA numbers above the range of trade expectations that averaged 31.528 million acres.