BRASILIA, BRAZIL — After shipping a record 42.5 million tonnes of corn in 2018-19, Brazil exports in 2019-20 are forecast to fall to 34 million tonnes, according to a Feb. 12 Global Agricultural Information Network report from the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA).
The USDA said the 20% decline is due to expectations of strong domestic demand as well as severely depleted carryover.
“Increased domestic consumption in 2019-20 will come from expanding poultry and livestock sectors and growth in corn ethanol production,” the USDA said.
Corn production in 2019-20 is forecast at 101 million tonnes, matching the output from the previous year in Brazil, the USDA said.
“Brazil’s domestic corn prices have continued to rise after record-high exports in 2019, which is further incentivizing producers to plant corn,” the USDA said.
Nevertheless, the USDA noted that the 2019-20 season is not without its challenges. Producers of full-season corn, largely planted in southern Brazil in competition with soy, have experienced adverse weather in the growing season, and soy planting and harvest delays may endanger yields for second-crop corn, the agency said.
In 2018-19, Brazil ranked second in corn exports behind the United States and was third in corn production.