WASHINGTON, D.C., U.S. — The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), in its May 10 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report, projected the carryover of all wheat on June 1, 2020, at 1.141 billion bushels, up 14 million bushels, or 1.2%, from 1.127 billion bushels as the estimated carryover for 2019, which was raised 40 million bushels, or 3.7%, from 1.087 billion bushels as the April estimate.
The carryover for 2020 was based on forecast 2019 all wheat production of1.897 billion bushels, up 13 million bushels from 1.884 billion bushels in 2018, with projected food use in 2019-20 at 965 million bushels, up 5 million bushels from 2018-19, seed use at 68 million bushels, up 6 million bushels, feed and residual use at 90 million bushels, up 40 million bushels, and exports at 900 million bushels, down 25 million bushels.
The USDA carryover projection for 2020 was above the average of trade expectation at 1.073 billion bushels.
The U.S. corn carryover on Sept. 1, 2020, was projected at 2.485 billion bushels, up 390 million bushels, or 19%, from 2.095 billion bushels as the forecast for 2019, which was raised 60 million bushels, or 3%, from the April projection.
Carryover in 2020 was based on 2019 projected corn production of 15.030 billion bushels, up 610 million bushels, or 4.2%, from 14.420 billion bushels in 2018, with feed and residual use in 2019-20 at 5.450 billion bushels, up 150 million bushels from 2018-19, use for ethanol at 5.500 billion bushels, up 50 million bushels, food, seed and other industrial use unchanged at 1.450 billion bushels, and exports at 2.275 billion bushels, down 25 million bushels.
The USDA’s 2020 corn carryover was near the high end of trade expectations that averaged 2.42 billion bushels.
The soybean carryover on Sept. 1, 2020, was projected at 970 million bushels, down 25 million bushels from 995 million bushels as the 2019 forecast, based on projected 2019 soybean production of 4.150 billion bushels, down 394 million bushels, or 9%, from 4.544 billion bushels in 2018, domestic crush in 2019-20 at a record 2.115 billion bushels, up 15 million bushels from 2.100 million bushels in 2018-19, seed use at 96 million bushels, down 2 million bushels, residual at 34 million bushels, up 3 million bushels, and exports at 1.950 billion bushels, up 175 million bushels, or 10%, from 1.775 billion bushels forecast for the current year.
The USDA 2020 soybean carryover was above the trade average expectation of 943 million bushels.
Immediately after the report, Chicago wheat futures were slightly lower while corn and soy complex futures were narrowly mixed.