Weather impacts Indonesia's grain crop

by World Grain Staff
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WASHINGTON, D.C., U.S. —  Total Indonesian wheat imports will grow by 1.6% from 7.478 million tonnes in market year 2014-15 to 7.6 million tonnes in market year 2015-16, the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) said in a March 30 report. Imports are expected to continue growing by 5.3% to 8 million tonnes in market year 2016-17, in line with higher demand from the domestic wheat flour-based food industry. The report expects that U.S. origin wheat exports to Indonesia will remain on par at 560,000 tonnes in market year 2015-16 due to stronger competition with traditional suppliers such as Australia and Canada.

Market year 2015-16 Indonesian corn production will increase to 9.4 million tonnes, compared to 9 million tonnes in market year 2014-15. The increase is due to increasing hybrid corn seed use, as well as increased corn plantings in the place of paddy and soybeans. Production is expected to increase to 9.6 million tonnes in market year 2016-17. Market year 2015-16 Indonesian corn imports are estimated to decline to 3 million tonnes due to corn import restrictions imposed by the government. Despite forecasted increases in market year 2016-17 production, higher demand from feed mills will maintain corn imports at 3 million tonnes.

Market year 2015-16 first rice crop face delays due to the strong El Niño phenomenon that will push back the market year 2015-16 third crop harvest to market year 2016-17. Considering the potential loss, the report estimates market year 2015-16 Indonesian paddy harvested area lower at 11.8 million hectares. Despite acreage losses, market year 2015-16 main harvest will take place under less rainfall, thus improving yields. Therefore, the report estimates that market year 2015-16 Indonesian rice production will slightly increase to 35.6 million tonnes milled rice equivalent. Despite higher production, the report estimates market year 2015-16 Indonesian rice imports to reach 2 million tonnes, in response to lower stocks carried over from the previous marketing year. Imports are expected to decline to 1.25 million tonnes in market year 2016-17.
 
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