The USDA forecast the carryover of all wheat on June 1, 2018, at 935 million bushels, down 25 million bushels from its October forecast due to a like increase in exports, forecast at 1 billion bushels. All other 2017-18 all wheat forecasts were unchanged, as were 2016-17 estimates with 2017 carryover at 1.181 billion bushels.
“Recent sales to Iraq support a higher export projection with hard red winter accounting for the entire increase,” the USDA said.
Slight changes were made in wheat-by-class carryover forecasts for 2018 with hard red winter at 461 million bushels, down 26 million bushels from October on a 25-million-bushel forecast increase in 2017-18 exports at 415 million bushels and a 1-million-bushel decline in total supply. Hard red spring carryover on June 1, 2018, was forecast at 157 million bushels, down 5 million bushels from October based on a like increase in domestic use, forecast at 271 million bushels. Soft red winter wheat carryover was forecast at 222 million bushels, up 1 million bushels on a like increase in total supply. White wheat carryover was forecast at 67 million bushels, up 4 million bushels due to a 5-million-bushel decrease in domestic use and a 1-million-bushel decrease in supply. Durum carryover was raised 1 million bushels to 28 million bushels based on a like increase in supply.
Corn carryover on Sept. 1, 2018, was forecast at 2.487 billion bushels, up 147 million bushels, or 6%, from October and up 8% from 2.295 billion bushels in 2017. The increase resulted from a 298-million-bushel increase in forecast 2017 corn production, at 14.578 billion bushels, partially offset by a 75-million-bushel increase in 2017-18 feed and residual use at 5.575 billion bushels, and a 75-million-bushel increase in forecast exports at 1.925 billion bushels.
“Exports are raised 75 million bushels, reflecting expectations of improved U.S. competitiveness, reduced exports for Ukraine and increase demand from Mexico based on sharply lower sorghum production prospects,” the USDA said.
The USDA 2018 wheat carryover forecast was below the pre-report trade average expectation of 956 million bushels, the soybean carryover was slightly above the trade average of 420 million bushels and the USDA corn carryover was well above the trade average of 2.360 billion bushels.
Wheat futures closed mixed for the day, with corn and soybean futures lower.