The IGC forecast 2016-17 world wheat ending stocks at a record 235 million tonnes, unchanged from the previous projection issued in November and up 14 million tonnes from 221 million tonnes in 2015-16.
The IGC also raised its projection for total grains production to 2.094 billion tonnes, up from 2.084 billion tonnes in November, and up from 2.005 billion in 2015-16.
Total consumption was raised to 2.062 billion tonnes from 2.056 billion tonnes.
“Apart from barley, solid growth is expected for most grains, but with a particularly sharp increase in maize output,” the IGC noted in its report. “Led by strong gains in use for feed, but with food and industrial demand also rising, grains consumption is expected to exceed 2 billion tonnes for only the second time. However, a comparatively steeper increase in supplies will lead to a fourth successive year of stock building, including records for wheat and maize. Trade is seen declining slightly, mainly on the reduced need for imported feed supplies in China.”
The IGC forecast 2016-17 maize production at 1.045 billion tonnes, up from 1.042 billion tonnes in November and compared with 971 million tonnes in 2015-16. The consumption projection was raised to 1.028 billion tonnes from 1.026 billion tonnes in November.
Decreases in the United States and Argentina only partly offset by increases in other regions led the IGC to project a decrease in 2016-17 world soybean production, to 334 million tonnes, from 336 million in November. The consumption projection, meanwhile, was raised to 333 million tonnes from 332 million. The IGC said global trade is expected to hold at 137 million tonnes.
The 2016-17 world outturn for rice is expected to total 482 million tonnes, down from 485 million in November. The IGC said the decrease reflects diminished prospects in South Asia, notably in Sri Lanka.
The IGC Grains and Oilseeds Index (GOI) rose by nearly 4% to its highest level in five months, the IGC said.
“Market direction was shaped by multiple factors, with particular underpinning to wheat, maize and soybeans stemming from some weather-related crop worries in key exporters,” the IGC said. “Robust international demand provided additional support at times, especially to rowcrops, while technical features, activity by funds and currency movements were sometimes influential.”