WASHINGTON, D.C., U.S. — The National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) of the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) on July 12 forecast wheat production this year at 2.26 billion bushels, up 184 million bushels from the June projection as contained in the June World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report and up 209.17 million bushels, or 10%, from 2.051 billion bushels in 2015. The July forecast was the first to contain survey-based other-spring wheat and durum projections. The June WASDE forecast was based on a survey of winter wheat producers as well as spring wheat projections based on the outlook for harvested acres and trendline yields. If the forecast all-wheat production were to be realized, the 2016 crop would be the largest since 2.511 billion bushels in 2008 and would compare with the recent five-year average outturn of 2.092 billion bushels.

The USDA forecast winter wheat production in 2016 at 1.627 billion bushels, up 121.038 million bushels, or 8%, from the June projection and up 257.476 million bushels, or 19%, from 1.37 billion bushels in 2015. The winter wheat forecast was based on a harvested area projection of 30.176 million acres, up 345,000 acres from the June projection, and a record average yield at 53.9 bushels per acre compared with the June projection at 50.5 bushels per acre.

The USDA forecast hard red winter wheat production this year at 1.034 billion bushels, up 96.403 million bushels, or 10%, from the June projection, up 207.145 million bushels, or 25%, from 826.913 million bushels in 2015 and compared with the recent five-year average outturn at 819 million bushels. The 2016 hard red winter wheat crop was forecast to be the largest since 1.046 billion bushels in 2008.

The Kansas hard red winter wheat crop was forecast at 453.6 million bushels, up 60 million bushels, or 15%, from the June projection and up 131.7 million bushels, or 41%, from 321.9 million bushels in 2015. The estimated Kansas average wheat yield was raised to a record 56 bushels per acre from the June forecast at 48 bushels per acre.

Soft red winter wheat production was forecast at 370.105 million bushels, up 15.5 million bushels, or 4%, from the June projection, up 11.05 million bushels, or 3%, from 359.055 million bushels in 2015 and compared with 450 million bushels as the recent five-year average.

The USDA forecast soft white winter wheat production in 2016 at 202.271 million bushels, up 6.877 million bushels, or 4%, from the June outlook and up 33.965 bushels, or 20%, from 168.306 million bushels in 2015. Hard white winter wheat production was forecast at 21.23 million bushels, up 5.316 bushels, or 33%, from 15.914 million bushels in 2015.

The USDA’s initial forecast for production of spring wheat other than durum in 2016 was 550.494 bushels, down 48.586 million bushels, or 8%, from 599.08 million bushels in 2015. The forecast was based on a harvested area at 11.835 million acres versus 12.941 million acres in 2015 and a forecast average yield of 46.5 bushels per acre compared with 46.3 bushel per acre as the 2015 average.

The hard red spring wheat crop was forecast at 511.46 million bushels, down 52.647 million bushels, or 9%, from 564.107 million bushels in 2015 and compared with the recent five-year average outturn of 502 million bushels. Soft white spring wheat was forecast at 32.88 million bushels, up 3.433 million bushels, or 12%, from 29.447 million bushels a year ago. Hard white spring wheat was forecast at 6.154 million bushels, up 628,000 bushels, or 11%, from 5.526 million bushels in 2015.

The USDA forecast the 2016 durum crop at 82.77 million bushels, up 286,000 bushels from 82.484 million bushels in 2015 and compared with the recent five-year average of 65 million bushels.