WASHINGTON, D.C., U.S. — In the first forecast for the 2015-16 marketing year, the carryover of U.S. wheat on June 1, 2016, was projected at 793 million bushels, up 84 million bushels, or 12%, from the current year estimate of 709 million bushels, which was raised 25 million bushels, or 4%, from the April estimate, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) said in its May 12 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.
The USDA 2015-16 all wheat carryover number was well above the average trade expectation of 727 million bushels, and the 2014-15 carryover also was above the trade average of 689 million bushels. Projected 2015-16 ending stocks would be the highest since 2010-11 if realized, the USDA said.
For 2014-15 wheat imports were revised up 5 million bushels from April, to 150 million bushels, and exports were revised down 20 million bushels, to 860 million bushels, resulting in a 25-million-bushels boost in 2015 carryover.
Total wheat supply in 2015-16 was projected at 2.937 billion bushels, up 171 million bushels, or 6%, from 2.766 billion bushels in 2014-15. The USDA projected 2015 U.S. all wheat production at 2.087 billion bushels, up 3% from 2.026 billion bushels in 2014, based on harvested area projected at 48 million acres, up 3% from 46.4 million, and yield at 43.5 bushels an acre, down slightly from 43.7 bushels last year. U.S. wheat imports were projected at 140 million bushels, down 10 million bushels from 2014-15.
Total 2015-16 domestic wheat use was projected at 1.219 billion bushels, up 22 million bushels, or 2% from 1.197 billion bushels in 2014-15 based on higher exports, food use and feed and residual use.
Wheat used for food in 2015-16 was projected at 967 million bushels, up 1% from 960 million bushels in 2014-15, and seed use at 72 million bushels, down 6% from 77 million bushels.
Feed and residual use in 2015-16 was projected at 180 million bushels, up 20 million bushels, or 13%, from 160 million bushels in 2014-15. Exports were projected at 925 million bushels, up 65 million bushels, or 8%, from 860 million bushels this year. Total use was projected at 2.144 billion bushels, up 87 million bushels, or 4%, from 2.057 billion bushels this year.
The initial all wheat average price for 2015-16 was projected at $4.50-$5.50 a bushel, compared with $6 a bushel estimated for the current year and $6.87 a bushel in 2013-14.
Only minor changes were made in 2014-15 wheat-by-class numbers. Initial wheat-by-class estimates for 2015-16 will be issued by the USDA in July.
Carryover of hard winter wheat on June 1, 2015, was estimated at 280 million bushels, up 8 million bushels from April based on a 3 million bushels reduction in 2014-15 domestic use (to 435 million bushels) and a 5 million bushels reduction in exports (to 270 million bushels).
Soft red winter wheat carryover was estimated at 174 million bushels, up 5 million bushels from April, based on a 5 million bushel decrease in exports (to 135 million bushels).
Hard red spring wheat carryover in 2015 was projected at 202 million bushels, up 12 million bushels from April, based on a 5 million bushel increase in imports, a 3 million bushel increase in domestic use (to 313 million bushels), and a 10 million bushels reduction in exports (to 280 million bushels).
White wheat carryover was unchanged from April at 38 million bushels as was durum carryover at 16 million bushels.
U.S. corn carryover on Sept. 1, 2016, was projected at 1.746 billion bushels, down 105 million bushels, or 6%, from an upwardly revised 1.851 billion bushels in 2015. The USDA 2015-16 U.S. corn carryover was above the trade average that was near 1.736 billion bushels. The 2014-15 carryover was slightly above the trade average of 1.848 billion bushels.
The USDA projected 2015 U.S. corn production at 13.63 billion bushels, down 586 million bushels, or 4% from a record 14.216 billion bushels in 2014 based on harvested area of 81.7 million acres, down 1.4 million, or 2%, from 83.1 million acres in 2014, and yield of 166.8 bushels an acre, down 4.2 bushels, or 2%, from a record 171 bushels an acre in 2014.
The average price of corn was projected to range from $3.20-$3.80 a bushel in 2015-16, compared with $3.55-$3.75 a bushel estimated for the current year and $4.46 a bushel in 2013-14.
“Forward pricing the 2015 crop has been at substantially lower levels than similar bids offered for the 2014 crop,” the USDA said.
U.S. total corn supply in 2015-16 was projected at a record 15.506 billion bushels, up 34 million bushels from 15.472 billion bushels in 2014-15, based on beginning stocks of 1.851 billion bushels (up 50% from 1.232 billion bushels in 2014-15), imports of 25 million bushels (unchanged) and 2015 production of 13.63 billion bushels.
Feed and residual use for 2015-16 was projected at 5.3 billion bushels, up 50 million bushels, or 1%, from 5.25 billion bushels in 2014-15. Food, seed and industrial use for next year was projected at 6.56 billion bushels, up 13 million bushels from a downwardly revised 6.547 billion bushels 2014-15 (based on corn use for ethanol projected at 5.2 billion bushels, unchanged from 2014-15, and for food, seed and industrial at 1.36 billion bushels, up 13 million bushels). Total domestic use was projected at 11.86 billion bushels, up 63 million bushels from 11.797 billion bushels in 2014-15.
Corn exports were projected at 1.9 billion bushels in 2015-16, up 75 million bushels, or 4%, from and upwardly revised 1.825 billion bushels in 2014-15. Total use was projected at a record 13.76 billion bushels, up 138 million bushels, or 1%, from 13.622 billion bushels in the current year.
U.S. soybean carryover on Sept. 1, 2016, was projected at 500 million bushels, up 150 million bushels, or 43%, from a downwardly revised 350 million bushels in 2015. The 2015-16 USDA soybean carryover number was well above the average trade expectation near 438 million bushels. The 2014-15 number was below the trade average of 363 million bushels.
The USDA projected 2015 U.S. soybean production at 3.85 billion bushels, down 119 million bushels, or 3% from a record 3.969 billion bushels in 2014, based on harvested area at 83.7 million acres, up 600,000 acres, or 1%, from 83.1 million acres in 2014, and yield at 46 bushels an acre, down 1.8 bushels, or 4%, from 47.8 bushels an acre last year.
The average price of soybeans in 2015-16 was projected to range from $8.25-$9.75 a bushel compared with $10.05 a bushel this year and $13 a bushel in 2013-14.
U.S. total soybean supply in 2015-16 was projected at 4.23 billion bushels, up 139 million bushels, or 3%, from 4.091 billion bushels in 2014-15, and based on beginning stocks of 350 million bushels, production of 3.85 billion bushels and imports of 30 million bushels.
Domestic soybean crush in 2015-16 was projected at 1.825 billion bushels, up 20 million bushels, or 1%, from 1.805 billion bushels in 2014-15. Exports were projected at 1.775 billion bushels, down 25 million bushels, or 1%, from an upwardly revised 1.8 billion bushels in 2014-15. Seed use was projected at 92 million bushels, down 6 million bushels, residual at 38 million bushels, unchanged, and total use at 3.729 billion bushels, down 12 million bushels from 3.741 billion bushels in 2014-15.
Wheat and corn futures prices traded modestly higher after the report while soy complex futures prices were lower.
U.S. rice carryover on Aug. 1, 2016, was projected at 47.4 million cwts, up 4.5 million cwts, or 10%, from 42.9 million cwts this year. U.S. rice production in 2015 was projected at 219 million cwts, down 2 million cwts from 2014. The average farm price was projected to range from $12.30-$13.30 a cwt in 2015-16 compared with $13.20-$13.60 a cwt in 2014-15 and $16.30 a cwt in 2013-14.
Wheat production was based on a combination of survey results for winter wheat and trend projections for durum and other spring. The first survey-based spring wheat, corn, soybean and rice numbers will be released in August.