LONDON, ENGLAND — Despite some market uncertainties in the past month about crop outlooks in certain regions, especially in North America, world total grain (wheat and coarse grains) output prospects remained generally favorable, the International Grains Council (IGC) said in its Grain Market Report on May 28.
Amid mostly good weather, upward revisions in the E.U., the CIS, Brazil, North Africa and China boost the projection for global production by 21 million tonnes month-on-month (m/m) to 1.968 billion tonnes, only 2% short of the previous year’s record.
About half of the increase in supply since last time is absorbed by greater projected use, mainly for feed, with consumption now seen marginally higher year-on-year (y/y), at 1.981 billion tonnes. The forecast for carryover stocks is lifted to 426 million tonnes, only a small contraction y/y. At 308 million tonnes, grain trade is placed 2 million tonnes higher m/m, and only modestly down y/y.
In the IGC’s first projections for 2015-16, world rice output is seen increasing to a record of 482 million tonnes on larger outturns in key Asian producers. With food demand expected to boost total consumption to a peak of 489 million tonnes, aggregate end-season carryovers are set to contract by 7%, to a six-year low, including another steep drop in major exporters’ inventories.
Traded volumes in 2016 are anticipated to be only fractionally below the forecast for the current year as competitively priced supplies likely stimulate above-average shipments to Africa and Asia.
With yields in key producers unlikely to match the current season’s exceptional results, world soybean output in 2015-16 is projected to fall slightly. Nevertheless, with the anticipated increase in total supplies set to exceed that of uptake, world carryovers are seen rising by 9% y/y, to a peak of 52 million tonnes, including an increase of more than one-fifth in the major exporters, led by the US.
Prospects for trade will again be shaped by China’s needs, with global volumes expected to expand by around 4% y/y, to a record of 123 million tonnes.
World export prices remained weak during May, pressured by prospects for continued ample supplies in the year ahead. The IGC Grains and Oilseeds Index (GOI) fell by 4% m/m, including declines for all of the sub-Indices.