WASHINGTON, D.C., U.S. — The Economic Research Service of the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) on Nov. 10 forecast the carryover of wheat in the United States on June 1, 2015, at 644 million bushels, down 10 million bushels from the October projection but up 54 million bushels, or 9%, from 590 million bushels in 2014. The adjustment resulted from a 10-million-bu reduction in the 2014-15 wheat supply forecast to 2.785 billion bushels. The 2013-14 wheat supply was 8% larger at 3.021 billion bushels.
The lower supply forecast was attributed to a lower 2014 wheat production estimate. The USDA estimated wheat production this year at 2.026 billion bushels, down 9 million bushels from the October estimate and down 109 million bushels, or 5%, from 2.135 billion bushels in 2013.
The USDA said the production estimate was lowered from that contained in the Small Grains Summary 2014 report issued in late September, which was the number carried into the October World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, because of a resurvey of production estimates in certain states. “Adjustments to production in these states, where significant acreage remained unharvested in early September, lowers production estimates for hard red spring wheat and durum.”
The revised production estimate for hard red spring wheat was 556 million bushels, down 5 million bushels from the September estimate and compared with 491 million bushels last year. The revised durum estimate was 53 million bushels, down 4 million bushels from September and compared with 58 million bushels in 2013.
The production estimates for the other wheat classes were unchanged with hard red winter wheat at 738 million bushels (747 million in 2013), soft red winter at 455 million bushels (568 million in 2013), and white wheat at 224 million bushels (271 million in 2013).
With the exception of the production and supply numbers, all other all-wheat supply-and-demand forecasts for 2014-15 were unchanged with imports at 170 million bushels (169 million in 2013-14), seed use at 76 million bushels (77 million in 2013-14), food use at a record 960 million bushels (951 million bushels in 2013-14), feed and residual use at 180 million bushels (228 million bushels in 2013-14) and exports at 925 million bushels (1.176 billion in 2013-14).
The USDA narrowed its forecast range for the average farm price of wheat in 2014-15 to $5.65-$6.15 per bushel from $5.55-$6.25 a bushel in October. That compares with an average price of $6.87 a bushel in 2013-14.
Carryover adjustments by class were forecast for hard red winter wheat, hard red spring wheat and durum. The hard red winter wheat carryover forecast was raised 20 million bushels, to 212 million bushels, as the export forecast was lowered by 20 million bushels, to 320 million bushels. The hard red spring wheat carryover was lowered 30 million bushels, to 217 million bushels, as the 2014-15 export forecast was raised 20 million bushels, to 280 million bushels, production was lowered 5 million bushels, and imports were lowered 5 million bushels, to 80 million bushels. The durum carryover was forecast at 17 million bushels, up 1 million bushels from September, as the production forecast was lowered 4 million bushels, to 53 million, and imports were raised 5 million bushels, to 55 million bushels.