WASHINGTON, D.C., U.S. — The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) in its Jan. 10 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates forecast the U.S. carryover of wheat on June 1, 2014, at 608 million bushels, up 33 million bushels from the December projection but down 110 million bushels, or 15%, from 718 million bushels in 2013. The forecast was above the average of pre-report trade estimates at about 559 million bushels.
“U.S. wheat supplies for 2013-14 are unchanged this month, but lower expected use raised projected ending stocks 33 million bushels,” the USDA said.
The carryover of hard red winter wheat on June 1, 2014, was forecast at 197 million bushels, up 3 million bushels from the December projection but down 43% from 343 million bushels in 2013. The soft red winter wheat carryover was forecast at 117 million bushels, up 28 million bushels from December but down 7 million bushels from 2013. The hard red spring wheat carryover was forecast at 208 million bushels, up 6 million bushels from December and up 43 million bushels, or 26%, from 165 million bushels in 2013. The white wheat carryover was forecast at 59 million bushels, up 1 million bushels from the previous projection but down 4 million bushels from 2013. The durum carryover was forecast at 26 million bushels, down 5 million from December and up 3 million bushels from 2013.
The USDA forecast the average farm price of wheat in 2013-14 at $6.60-$7.00 a bushel, which compared with a range of $6.65-$7.15 a bushel projected in December and with $7.77 a bushel in 2012-13.
U.S. corn carryover on Sept. 1, 2014, was projected at 1.631 billion bushels, down 161 million bushels, or 9%, from the December forecast but up 810 million bushels, or 99%, from 821 million bushels in 2013.
“Projected corn use for 2013-14 is raised with feed and residual use projected up 100 million bushels based on September-November disappearance indicated by the Dec. 1 stocks estimate,” the USDA said.
Soybean carryover on Sept. 1, 2014, was projected at 150 million bushels, unchanged from the December projection and up 9 million bushels from 141 million bushels in 2013.
The USDA corn carryover was below the average trade expectation of 1.844 billion bushels, and the USDA soybean number was slightly below the trade average of 151 million bushels.
The USDA projected 2013-14 global ending stocks of wheat at 185.4 million tonnes, up 1% from the December projection of 182.78 million tonnes and up 5% from 176.13 million tonnes estimated for 2012-13.
“Global wheat ending stocks are projected 2.6 million tonnes higher mostly on increases for China and the United States,” the USDA said.
World corn ending stocks in 2013-14 were projected at 160.23 million tonnes, down 2.23 million tonnes, or 1%, from 162.46 million tonnes in December but up 27.25 million tonnes, or 20%, from the 132.98 million tonnes in 2012-13.
World soybean ending stocks for 2013-14 were projected at 72.33 million tonnes, up 1.71 million tonnes from December and up 11.78 million tonnes, or 19%, from 60.55 million tonnes in 2012-13.