WASHINGTON, D.C., U.S. — U.S. 2013 corn production was forecast at 13,763,025,000 bushels, up 28% from 10,780,296,000 bushels in 2012, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) said it is Aug. 12 Crop Production report. Soybean production was forecast at 3,255,444,000 bushels, up 8% from 3,014,998,000 bushels last year. All-wheat production was forecast at 2,114,085,000 bushels, up slightly from 2,113,643,000 bushels in July but down 7% from 2,269,117,000 bushels in 2012.
If realized, corn production would be record high and soybean production would be the third largest on record, the USDA said. It was the first USDA survey-based forecast of the season for corn, soybeans and other row crops.
The USDA corn number was below the average pre-report trade estimate of 14.005 billion bushels. The soybean number also was below the pre-report average of about 3.336 billion bushels. The all-wheat number was above the average analyst estimate of 2.106 billion bushels.
Corn and soy complex futures traded higher after the report, while wheat futures were mixed but mostly lower. In early trading on Aug. 13, corn futures prices had drifted lower while soybean futures still were moving higher, in part due to continued strong export demand after the USDA said Aug. 12 that China had bought another 713,000 tonnes of U.S. soybeans for delivery in 2013-14.
Based on Aug. 1 conditions, corn yield was forecast at 154.4 bushels an acre, up 31 bushels from 123.4 bushels an acre in 2012 and the highest average yield since 2009, the USDA said. Harvested area was forecast at 89,135,000 acres, unchanged from the June Acreage report but up 2% from 87,375,000 acres in 2012.
Soybean yield was forecast at 42.6 bushels an acre, up 3 bushels from 39.6 bushels an acre in 2012 and the fifth highest on record if realized. Harvested area was forecast at 76,378,000 acres, down slightly from June, up slightly from 76,104,000 acres in 2012 and the second highest on record if realized. Planted area was estimated at 77,178,000 acres, down slightly from June and from 77,198,000 acres in 2012.
“Survey respondents who reported acreage as not yet planted in Arkansas, Illinois, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Minnesota, Mississippi, North Carolina, North Dakota, South Dakota, Tennessee and Wisconsin during the survey conducted in preparation for the Acreage report, released June 28, 2013, were re-contacted in July to determine how many of those acres were planted or still intended to be planted,” the USDA said. “Acreage estimates in this report reflect this updated information.”
All-wheat average yield was forecast at 46.2 bushels an acre, unchanged from July but down 0.1 bushel from 46.3 bushels an acre in 2012. Harvested area was forecast at 45,730,000 acres, unchanged from July but down 7% from 48,991,000 acres in 2012.
Production of spring wheat other than durum was forecast at 511,280,000 bushels, down slightly from 513,018,000 bushels forecast in July and down 6% from 541,959,000 bushels a year ago. The average yield was forecast at 42.8 bushels an acre, down 0.1 bushel from 42.9 bushels an acre in July and down 2.2 bushels from 45 bushels in 2012. Harvested area was forecast at 11,958,000 acres, unchanged from July but down 1% from 12,055,000 acres a year ago.
Production of hard red spring wheat was forecast at 474,823,000 bushels, down slightly from 476,324,000 bushels in July and down 6% from 504,520,000 bushels in 2012.
Durum outturn was forecast at 60,200,000 bushels, up 5% from 57,530,000 bushels in July but down 27% from 81,956,000 bushels in 2012. Based on Aug. 1 conditions, durum yield was forecast at 40.1 bushels an acre, up 1.8 bushels from 38.3 bushels an acre in July and up 1.1 bushels from 39 bushels an acre in 2012, the USDA said. Harvested area was forecast at 1,502,000 acres, unchanged from July but down 29% from 2,102,000 acres a year ago.
The USDA estimated winter wheat production at 1,542,605,000 bushels, down slightly from 1,543,095,000 bushels in July and down 6% from 1,645,202,000 bushels in 2012. Winter wheat yield was estimated at 47.8 bushels an acre, unchanged from July but up 0.6 bushels from 47.2 bushels an acre last year and equal to the 1999 record, the USDA said. Harvested area was estimated at 32,270,000 acres, unchanged from July but down 7% from 34,834,000 acres a year ago.
Hard red winter wheat production was estimated at 791,364,000 bushels, down slightly from 792,662,000 bushels in July and down 21% from 1,003,856,000 bushels in 2012.
Soft red winter production was estimated at 542,145,000 bushels, up 1% from 538,947,000 bushels in July and up 29% from 419,801,000 bushels in 2012.
Soft white winter wheat outturn was estimated at 197,236,000 bushels, down 2% from 199,549,000 bushels in July and down 5% from 208,295,000 bushels in 2012. Hard white outturn was estimated at 11,860,000 bushels, down 1% from 11,937,000 bushels in July and down 10% from 13,250,000 bushels last year.
In its first survey-based rice crop forecast of the season, the USDA forecast 2013 U.S. rice production at 181,364,000 cwts, down 9% from 199,479,000 cwts in 2012.
Sorghum production in 2013 was forecast at 358,892,000 bushels, up 45% from 246,932,000 bushels in 2012.
The USDA forecast 2013 oats production at 75,210,000 bushels, up 1% from 74,459,000 bushels in July and up 17% from 64,024,000 bushels in 2012 but still the third lowest production on record.