WASHINGTON, D.C., U.S. — In the first forecast for the 2013-14 marketing year, the carryover of U.S. wheat on June 1, 2014, was projected at 670 million bushels, down 61 million bushels, or 8%, from the current year estimate of 731 million bushels, which was unchanged from the April forecast, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) said in its May 10 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.
The USDA 2013-14 all wheat carryover number of 670 million bushels was above the average trade expectation of 627 million bushels.
The USDA projected 2013 U.S. all wheat production at 2.057 billion bushels, down 9% from 2.269 billion bushels in 2012, based on harvested area projected at 46.7 million acres, down about 5%, and yield at 44.1 bushels an acre, down 5% from last year. U.S. wheat imports in 2013-14 were projected at 130 million bushels, up 5 million bushels from 125 million bushels in the current year. Total supply was projected at 2.917 billion bushels, down 220 million bushels, or 7%, from 3.137 billion bushels in 2012-13.
Wheat used for food in 2013-14 was projected at 958 million bushels, up 1% from 945 million bushels in 2012-13, and seed use was projected at 74 million bushels, down 3% from 76 million bushels. Feed and residual use in 2013-14 was projected at 290 million bushels, down 70 million bushels, or 19%, from 360 million bushels in 2012-13. Total 2013-14 domestic use was projected at 1.322 billion bushels, down 59 million bushels, or 4% from 1.381 billion bushels in 2012-13.
Exports were projected at 925 million bushels in 2013-14, down 100 million bushels, or 10%, from 1.025 billion bushels this year. Total use was projected at 2.247 billion bushels, down 159 million bushels, or 7%, from 2.406 billion bushels this year.
The initial all wheat average price for 2013-14 was projected at $6.15-$7.45 a bushel, compared with $7.80 a bushel estimated for the current year.
For 2012-13 wheat imports were revised down 5 million bushels from April, to 125 million bushels, and food use also was revised down 5 million bushels, to 945 million bushels, resulting in unchanged carryover from April at 731 million bushels.
Only minor changes were made in 2012-13 wheat-by-class numbers. The USDA in July will issue wheat-by-class estimates for 2013-14.
Carryover of hard winter wheat on June 1, 2013, was estimated at 340 million bushels, down 17 million bushels from the April forecast based on a 7 million bushels reduction in 2012-13 imports and a 10 million bushels increase in exports, now estimated at 410 million bushels.
Soft red winter wheat carryover was estimated at 115 million bushels, up 8 million bushels from April, based on a 3 million bushel decrease in domestic use, estimated at 315 million bushels, and a 5 million bushels reduction in exports, estimated at 195 million bushels.
Hard spring wheat carryover in 2013 was projected at 199 million bushels, up 9 million bushels from April, based on a 2 million bushel increase in imports, a 2 million bushel reduction in domestic use, estimated at 280 million bushels, and a 5 million bushels reduction in exports, estimated at 220 million bushels.
Numbers for white wheat and durum were unchanged from April.
U.S. corn carryover on Sept. 1, 2014, was projected at 2.004 billion bushels, up 1.245 billion bushels, or 164%, from an upwardly revised 759 million bushels in 2013. The USDA 2013-14 U.S. corn carryover was above the trade average that was near 1.973 billion bushels.
The USDA projected 2013 U.S. corn production at a record high 14.14 billion bushels, up 31% from 10.78 billion bushels in 2012 based on planted area of 97.3 million acres, up slightly from 2012, and harvested area of 89.5 million acres, up 2%, and yield of 158 bushels an acre, up 28% from 123.4 bushels. The average price of corn was projected to range from $4.30-$5.10 a bushel in 2013-14, down from $6.70-$7.10 a bushel estimated for the current year and $6.22 a bushel in 2011-12.
U.S. total corn supply in 2013-14 was projected at 14.924 billion bushels, up 25% from 11.894 billion bushels in 2012-13, based on beginning stocks of 759 million bushels, imports of 25 million bushels (down 100 million bushels from 2012-13) and record 2013 production of 14.14 billion bushels.
Feed and residual use for 2013-14 was projected at 5.325 billion bushels, up 925 million bushels, or 21%, from 4.4 billion bushels in 2012-13. Food, seed and industrial use for next year was projected at 6.295 billion bushels, up 310 million bushels, or 5%, from 5.985 billion bushels 2012-13 (based on corn use for ethanol projected at 4.85 billion bushels, up 250 million bushels, and for food, seed and industrial at 1.445 billion bushels, up 60 million bushels). Total domestic use was projected at 11.62 billion bushels, up 1.235 billion bushels, or 12%, from 10.385 billion bushels 2012-13.
Corn exports were projected at 1.3 billion bushels in 2013-14, up 550 million bushels, or 73% from 750 million bushels in 2012-13. Total use was projected at 12.92 billion bushels, up 1.785 billion bushels, or 16%, from 11.135 billion bushels in the current year.
U.S. soybean carryover on Sept. 1, 2014, was projected at 265 million bushels, up 140 million bushels, or 112%, from 125 million bushels in 2013. The 2013-14 USDA soybean carryover number was above the average trade of expectation near 239 million bushels.
The USDA projected 2013 U.S. soybean production at a record 3.39 billion bushels, up 12% from 3.015 billion bushels in 2012, planted area at 77.1 million acres, down slightly, and harvested area at 76.2 million acres, up slightly, and yield at 44.5 bushels an acre, up 12% from 39.6 bushels an acre. The average price of soybeans in 2013-14 was projected to range from $9.50-$11.50 a bushel, compared with $14.30 this year and $12.50 in 2011-12.
U.S. total soybean supply in 2013-14 was projected at 3.53 billion bushels, up 326 million bushels, or 10%, from 3.204 billion bushels in 2012-13, and based on beginning stocks of 125 million bushels, production of 3.39 billion bushels and imports of 15 million bushels.
Domestic soybean crush in 2013-14 was projected at 1.695 billion bushels, up 60 million bushels, or 4%, from 1.635 billion bushels in 2012-13. Exports were projected at 1.45 billion bushels, up 100 million bushels, or 7% from 1.35 billion bushels in 2012-13. Seed use was projected at 87 million bushels, down 3 million bushels from the current year, residual at 33 million bushels, up 28 million bushels, and total use at 3.264 billion bushels, up 184 million bushels, or 6%, from 3.08 billion bushels in 2012-13.
U.S. rice carryover on Aug. 1, 2014, was projected at 33.1 million cwts, down 1 million cwts, or 3%, from 34.1 million cwts this year. U.S. rice production in 2013 was projected at 189.5 million cwts, down 10 million cwts from 2012. The average farm price was projected to range from $14.30-$15.30 a cwt in 2013-14 compared with $14.70-$15.10 a cwt in 2012-13 and $14.50 a cwt in 2011-12.