WASHINGTON, D.C., U.S. — U.S. wheat carryover on June 1, 2013, was projected at 731 million bushels, up 15 million bushels, or 2%, from 716 million bushels as the March projection due to a projected 15-million-bushel decrease in 2012-13 feed and residual use more than offsetting a slight increase in seed use, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) said in its World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.

“Feed and residual use for 2012-13 is projected 15 million bushels lower reflecting lower-than-expected disappearance during the December-February quarter as indicated by the March 1 stocks,” the USDA said. “Feed and residual use is projected lower for hard red winter and hard red spring wheat, but declines are partly offset by higher expected feed and residual use for soft red winter and white wheat.”

The USDA 2013 wheat carryover was on target with the average expected by the trade that was near 731 million bushels. 

Projected exports and domestic food use of wheat were unchanged for 2012-13. The average price of wheat was projected at $7.70-$7.90 a bushel, narrowed from $7.65-$7.95 a bushel projected in March but well above $7.24 a bushel in 2011-12.

U.S. all wheat production was estimated at 2.269 billion bushels in 2012, unchanged from March and up 270 million bushels, or 14%, from 1.999 billion bushels in 2012. Imports were unchanged from March at 130 million bushels but up 18 million bushels from 2011-12. Total wheat supply was projected at 3.142 billion bushels, unchanged from March but up 168 million bushels, or 6%, from 2.974 billion bushels in 2011-12.

Feed and residual use was projected at 360 million bushels, down 15 million bushels from 375 million bushels projected in March but up 196 million bushels, or 120%, from 164 million bushels in 2011-12. Seed use was projected at 76 million bushels, up 1 million bushels from March and unchanged from 2011-12. 

The USDA projected domestic food use of U.S. wheat in 2012-13 at 950 million bushels, unchanged from March but up 9 million bushels, or 1%, from 941 million bushels in 2011-12.

Total domestic use was projected at 1.386 billion bushels, down 14 million bushels from 1.4 billion bushels in March but up 204 million bushels, or 17%, from 1.182 billion bushels in 2011-12.

Exports of U.S. wheat for 2012-13 were projected at 1.025 billion bushels, unchanged from March but down 25 million bushels, or 2%, from 1.05 billion bushels in 2011-12.

Total use of wheat in 2012-13 was projected at 2.411 billion bushels, down 14 million bushels from 2.425 billion bushels in March but up 180 million bushels, or 8%, from 2.231 billion bushels last year.

The USDA projected June 1, 2013, carryover of hard winter wheat at 357 million bushels, up 25 million bushels from March and up 40 million bushels from 317 million bushels in 2012. Total supply was increased 6 million bushels from March to 1.345 billion bushels, while domestic use was reduced 19 million bushels to 588 million bushels. Exports were unchanged at 400 million bushels. Total use was projected at 988 million bushels, down 19 million bushels from March but up 139 million bushels from 849 million bushels in 2011-12.

Soft red winter wheat carryover was projected at 107 million bushels, down 11 million bushels from March and down 78 million bushels from 185 million bushels in 2012. Domestic use was projected at 318 million bushels, up 11 million bushels from March. Total supply was unchanged at 626 million bushels, as were exports at 200 million bushels.

Hard spring wheat carryover was projected at 190 million bushels, up 10 million bushels from March and up 39 million bushels from 151 million bushels in 2012. Domestic use was projected at 282 million bushels, down 10 million bushels from March, while total supply was unchanged at 698 million bushels and exports held steady at 225 million bushels.

White wheat carryover was projected at 46 million bushels, down 5 million bushels from March and down 18 million bushels from 2012. Domestic use was raised 5 million bushels from March to 110 million bushels, while total supply was unchanged at 331 million bushels and exports also were unchanged at 175 million bushels.

Durum carryover on June 1, 2013, was projected at 30 million bushels, down 5 million bushels from March but up 5 million bushels from 2012. Total supply was lowered 6 million bushels to 142 million bushels, while domestic use was unchanged at 88 million bushels and exports held at 25 million bushels.

U.S. corn carryover on Sept. 1, 2013, was projected at 757 million bushels, up 125 million bushels, or 20%, from 632 million bushels projected in March but down 232 million bushels, or 23%, from 989 million bushels in 2012.

The USDA 2013 corn carryover number was well below the average of trade expectations of 824 million bushels. 

Total U.S. corn supply in 2012-13 was unchanged from March at 11.894 billion bushels, including beginning stocks at 989 million bushels, imports at 125 million bushels and 2012 production at 10.78 billion bushels.

Projected feed and residual use in 2012-13 was projected at 4.4 billion bushels, down 150 million bushels, or 3%, from 4.55 billion bushels in projected in March and down 145 million bushels from a slightly revised 4.545 billion bushels in 2011-12.

Food, seed and industrial use was projected at 5.937 billion bushels, up 50 million bushels from 5.887 billion bushels in March due to a 50-million-bushel increase in projected use of corn for ethanol and by-products at 4.55 billion bushels. Projected use of corn for food and seed was unchanged at 1.387 billion bushels.

U.S. corn exports in 2012-13 were projected at 800 million bushels, down 25 million bushels, or 3%, from 825 million bushels in March and down 743 million bushels, or 48%, from 1.543 billion bushels in 2011-12.

Total use of corn in 2012-13 was projected at 11.137 billion bushels, down 125 million bushels from 11.262 billion bushels as the March forecast and down 1.39 billion bushels, or 11%, from 12.527 billion bushels in 2011-12.

“Corn feed and residual disappearance is lowered 150 million bushels reflecting indicated disappearance for the first half of the marketing year,” the USDA said. “Domestic corn use for 2012-13 is projected 100 million bushels lower as a 50-million-bushel increase in corn used to produce ethanol partly offsets the lower projection for feed and residual disappearance. Larger-than-expected March 1 corn supplies, lower corn prices and favorable margins for producing and blending ethanol limit the expected year-to-year decline in ethanol production during the second half of the marketing year. Corn exports for 2012-13 are projected 25 million bushels lower reflecting the continued sluggish pace of sales and shipments and additional competition from Brazil and Ukraine.”


The average farm price of corn was projected to range from $6.65-$7.15 a bushel in 2012-13, down from $6.75-$7.45 projected in March but still above $6.22 a bushel in 2011-12 and $5.18 a bushel in 2010-11.

Carryover of U.S. soybeans on Sept. 1, 2013, was projected at 125 million bushels, unchanged from March but down 44 million bushels, or 26%, from 169 million bushels in 2012.

The USDA 2013 soybean carryover was below the average trade expectation that was near 137 million bushels, but soy complex futures still traded modestly lower after the report.

All 2012-13 soybean supply projections were unchanged from March. U.S. soybean production in 2012 was estimated at 3.015 billion bushels, down 79 million bushels, or 3%, from 3.094 billion bushels in 2011. Soybean imports in 2012-13 were at 20 million bushels, up 4 million bushels from 2011-12. Total supply was projected at 3.204 billion bushels, down 121 million bushels, or 4%, from 3.325 billion bushels in 2011-12.

U.S. soybean crush was forecast at 1.635 billion bushels, up 20 million bushels from March but still down 68 million bushels, or 4%, from 1.703 billion bushels in 2011-12. 

Exports were projected at 1.35 billion bushels, up 5 million bushels from March but down 12 million bushels from 1.362 billion bushels in 2011-12.

Soybean residual use was projected a 5 million bushels, down 25 million bushels from March but up 4 million bushels from 2011-12.

Total soybean use was projected at 3.08 billion bushels, unchanged from March but down 75 million bushels, or 2%, from 3.155 billion bushels in 2011-12.

“Residual use is reduced based on indications from the March 28 grain Stocks report,” the USDA said. The increase in projected crush “reflects strong soybean meal exports through the first half of the marketing year.”

The average price paid to farmers for soybeans in 2012-13 was projected to range from $13.80-$14.80 a bushel, unchanged from March but well above the $12.50 a bushel average in 2011-12.