MOSCOW, RUSSIA — Russia’s largest grain region may suffer a greatly diminished harvest if forecasted high heat and a lack of rain come to pass during the coming months following spring frosts, Reuters reported.

Rostov Governor Yuri Slyusar issued a decree on May 19 introducing the state of emergency for farming after spring frosts and ordered local authorities to evaluate the damage. The declaration is a measure that will allow farmers to seek compensation for losses.

Andrei Sizov from grain consultancy Sovecon told Reuters that the lack of rain is now the biggest threat to crops in Rostov. He said the overall situation has improved with some recent rainfall, but it’s far from sufficient, setting the stage for below-average yields.

Rostov became the third Russian grain-producing region to declare a farming emergency after frosts in late April and May. The others were Voronezh and Belgorod. 

In February local authorities forecast this year’s harvest in Rostov would be 13.7 million tonnes, 20% more than in 2024. The region’s grain harvest fell by 22% last year after Rostov was hit by spring frosts and then by drought, with the wheat harvest declining by 38%. 

The grain harvest for all of Russia, the world’s biggest wheat exporter, declined by almost 14% in 2024. 

The International Grains Council (IGC) projects Russia’s overall grain production for the 2025-26 marketing year at 119.3 million tonnes, up slightly from the forecasted 117 million tonnes harvested in 2024-25. Both years are down significantly from the estimated 134 million tonnes produced in 2023-24 and 140.6 million in 2022-23.