KANSAS CITY, MISSOURI, US — Already on the path toward healthier, nutrient-dense products, the increasing popularity of GLP-1 medications for weight loss and treatment of chronic conditions is encouraging flour millers to move ahead with new innovations and product offerings. 

Rather than focus on the possibility of reduced demand for bread, sweets and other grain-based foods among GLP-1 users, millers said they are viewing usage of the medication as an opportunity. 

“This shift has been happening for many years now toward healthier food, and now that there is a solution that is becoming more and more accessible to consumers, it’s definitely accelerating the pace of change,” said Colleen Zammer, vice president of innovation and growth for Bay State Milling. “I think our first reaction is that this is scary and could have a huge negative impact, but I don’t think it has to be like that. We know that we can make healthier foods. As long as we can provide those in an affordable way, this is all opportunity for the grain-based food and milling industries.”

Although created as a drug to help with type 2 diabetes, GLP-1 receptor agonists increasingly are prescribed for weight loss because of their ability to reduce cravings and overall food consumption. Some projections call for GLP-1 overall usage to reach 30 million by 2030, as uses expand to other chronic health conditions such as heart and kidney disease and neurological disorders. 

GLP-1 adoption is creating a shift in consumer behavior, said Pete Levangie, president and chief executive officer of Bay State Milling, with users looking for more nutrient dense options loaded with fiber and protein while consuming smaller portions.

“The opportunity for the food industry, including flour, is in innovative ingredients that align with these emerging health trends and deliver better nutrition,” he said. 

Unlike past diet disruptions, such as Atkins and Paleo, the focus isn’t solely on the elimination of carbohydrates. GLP-1 users overall consume less food, including significant reductions in bread, sweets and snacks. GLP-1s are also likely to have more staying power.

“We’re still learning of the impacts in the food space,” said Erin Ball, executive director, Grain Foods Foundation. “I think this is an important time for the grain-based food industry to do what we’ve often done, which is be heroes. This industry has been heroic in enrichment and fortification and this is an opportunity to really support people in their pursuit of better health.”

There is a medical-based macro change occurring that could lead to more sustained behavior changes for people who are taking GLP-1 medication, said Lindsey Morgan, senior director of product marketing and innovation for Ardent Mills. 

“I think the industry should take note, and I think the industry should be reacting,” she said. “It doesn’t have to be a threat because there’s opportunities, too. What we just really need to do is adapt to what’s happening.” 

A different kind of disruption

GLP-1 agonists are a type of medication designed to manage blood sugar in people with type 2 diabetes and they can also help treat obesity, according to the Cleveland Clinic. They mimic the naturally produced hormones that slow stomach emptying and increase the feeling of fullness. 

An estimated 2 million people take GLP-1 medications for weight loss, said Chris Shibutani, US biopharmaceuticals senior analyst at Goldman Sachs. That could increase to 15 million by 2030, or 14% of the US population with an obesity diagnosis, if concerns such as high cost, insurance coverage barriers and supply constraints are abated, he said in the Goldman Sachs report, Weighing the GLP-1 Market. Overall, an estimated 6% of the US population is on GLP-1 medications, whether for diabetes, other chronic health conditions or weight loss. 

Oral GLP-1s, once they enter the market, are expected to be 25% cheaper than the current injectables, Goldman Sachs said. 

“With news suggesting that GLP-1 medications will become even more readily available and at a more competitive cost, we envision more common usage among the US population,” Levangie said.

With the increasing popularity, there are also noticeable changes in the amount and type of foods being consumed by GLP-1 users, according to studies on the topic. A Corbion proprietary survey from 2024 found 77% of users had decreased food consumption since beginning on the medication. Within specific categories, 48% said they were purchasing bread less often, while 38% said they were purchasing less cereal and 37% said the same of sweet goods. 

A similar study by Cornell University’s SC Johnson College of Business and research firm Numerator said consumers on GLP-1s were cutting back on purchases of sweet and salty foods and snacks. 

The report examined 2,623 households with at least one GLP-1 user. Among categories, chips, sweet bakery, side dishes and cookies showed some of the largest reductions in spending following GLP-1 use, decreasing by an average of 6.7% to 11.1%.

Consumers who were using GLP-1 medications for weight loss cut spending on chips, other savory snacks and sweet bakery items by more than 10% in the six months after starting the medications. Reduction in food consumption across multiple categories is different than other diet trends, many of which put carbohydrates in the cross hairs. 

“People are eating less of everything, the ‘food presecription’ that accompanies GLP-1 use does not target a particular macronutrient nor food group,” Ball said. 

While weight loss always has been a big business, this is the first time there’s been something that is so effective and sort of the Holy Grail in weight management, said Bay State Milling’s Zammer.

“It literally stops you from being hungry, stops you from craving foods and is really making people eat substantially less food and fewer calories than we’ve ever experienced,” she said. 

It’s also different in that unlike fad diets that come and go, GLP-1 medications seem to have more staying power, Levangie said. 

“Since this is a medication and not just a dietary change, people on GLP-1s have real physiological impacts and are actively seeking foods to support gut health and metabolic function,” he said. “This is an opportunity for companies like us to showcase better ingredients that deliver the nutrients GLP-1 users need in a way that still tastes great and for food manufacturers to reimagine the role functional ingredients like high-fiber flour can play in their products.”

Usage of GLP-1 medications could increase to 30 million by 2030.

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There’s not been a noticeable change in overall flour demand resulting from GLP-1 usage, Levangie said, but Bay State Milling has received more inquiries from customers looking to innovate to meet the needs of this growing consumer segment. Bay State Milling operates seven wheat flour mills and two durum mills in the United States and produces a wide range of flours. 

“Our customers want to better understand the impacts of these medications on food preferences and how to reformulate with ingredients that offer more macronutrients and functional benefits,” he said. 

Ardent Mills has been proactively tracking GLP-1s since the summer of 2023, said Matt Schueller, director of marketing insights and analytics. While adoption rates are growing, they currently represent less than 10% of US adults. Ardent Mills has 31 wheat flour mills in the United States and three in Canada, along with one US durum mill and one in Canada.

“Our take is that there is some potential exposure and evolving consumer behavior to watch closely — particularly around categories like snacks and baked goods, where traditional flour-based products may be impacted, ” he said. “This isn’t about elimination of certain foods, but rather a reduction. Consumers are shifting what they eat.”

GLP-1 usage could have a measurable impact, especially on specific categories of food, but it hasn’t reached a level that might challenge Atkins, Schueller said. 

“But again, the food industry is in a precarious place right now, and so any reduction from a single outside factor would be troubling,” he said. 

With GLP-1 users consuming less grain-based foods, there’s bound to be a trickle-down effect to the milling industry, which supplies the flour and semolina for those products, unless the industry has something unique and nutrient-dense to offer, Zammer said. 

“We are a category of foods that if we aren’t able to make changes and aren’t able to make these food products more nutrient dense for people on these medications, it will definitely stand to have an impact,” she said. 

GLP-1 users are concerned about being fully nourished since they’re consuming less calories. Grain-based foods can provide the vitamins, minerals and micronutrients that they need, Ball said.  

“I think we’re still an important part of the equation,” she said, adding that the opportunity to nourish people, wherever they are in life, should be prioritized alongside business concerns like potential reduced sales.

Accelerating opportunities

There is an opportunity for the milling and grain-based foods industries in formulation and marketing, Ball said, with fiber and protein as key talking points right now.  

“There’s a formulation opportunity but there’s also an opportunity simply to talk about what’s already good about our products,” she said. “Grain-based foods have filled particular nutrient gaps in the American population for decades. They will continue to do that in this environment of folks taking these medications.”

Whole grains are making a little bit of a comeback, Schueller said, with an increase in marketplace usage. 

“Consumers are shifting what they eat and obviously are moving in many cases toward more nutrient-dense, healthy foods,” he said. “We have a lot of solutions within our portfolio that can help address that.”

Those solutions include whole wheat, UltraGrain flour, sorghum, lentils, barley, pulses, chickpea flour as well as gluten-free grains such as quinoa, millet and teff. 

“Our approach here is taking our existing products and trying to work with our customers because we do have a whole grouping of products that can help support the development of GLP-1 friendly food,” said Ardent Mills’ Morgan. “In that respect, we’re ready to go now but we also are looking at opportunities for some custom innovations that would take us a little longer.”

For example, Ardent Mills is working to create more pulse-based products and considering different blends of grains. UltraGrain flour is an interesting opportunity, Morgan said, because it achieves the whole grain benefit with the white flour taste and look.  

“I think there may also be an opportunity in the future for us to look at some fortification, some boosting of the protein or fiber in flours,” she said. 

In work Ardent Mills has done with consumers specifically on GLP-1, the characteristics of the food they are eating are very similar to the strategy and work the company has had in place for many years, Schueller said. 

“I think GLP-1 is probably an accelerator on all sides, on the customer side, on the miller side and certainly on the consumer side,” he said, adding that it fits with other trends for cleaner ingredients and labels. “It all sort of blends together in a broader movement toward truly more nutritious food.”

Many current GLP-1 users are within families and have children living in the household, which presents an opportunity to expose younger generations to a healthier approach to eating, Schueller said. 

“There’s undoubtedly going to be a trickle-down effect, and it may be a real opportunity for kids’ nutrition,” he said. “That is obviously a challenge in the US and something that Ardent Mills is very actively committed to just from a nourishing the future standpoint.”

The industry also has a portion message in that many of its products already are pre-portioned, whether it’s sliced bread or individually packaged items, Ball said. 

“If maybe you used to eat a sandwich with two or even three slices of bread, you can switch to one slice of bread pretty easily with the same product,” she said. 

The Grain Foods Foundation is preparing its second annual consumer insights research project, which will include a section on the impacts of GLP-1 medications. 

“I’d like to learn more about what attributes of foods are appealing to consumers taking the drug,” Ball said. “I think those are things that we haven’t really delved into yet. When we better understand palate changes the medicines may cause, we can then either market what we already have toward those folks or again think about formulation and making products that would taste good to that population.”

Tasting good while delivering health benefits is the goal for Bay State Milling’s HealthSense High-Fiber Wheat Flour that has been on the market for nearly five years. Flour often gets a bad rap, Levangie said, despite it being one of the most consumed and affordable ingredients.

HealthSense naturally contains more prebiotic fiber than traditional white flour while maintaining the white flour taste consumers know and love, he said. 

“Flours that offer functional ingredients with real health benefits in a way that doesn’t impact flavor are an opportunity for millers to deliver what today’s consumers want — better-for-you products with clean, simple-to-read labels,” Levangie said. 

The wheat used to make HealthSense is a high amylose variety in which the amylose acts as dietary fiber, Zammer said, so it’s not digested in the gastrointestinal tract but makes it all the way down to the colon. 

“This wheat has 10 times the amount of fiber than regular wheat, and fiber is one of those nutrients of concern for people who are using GLP-1s,” she said. “The fiber in and of itself is a fermentable fiber, which the way it’s metabolized by your gut microbiome, is almost an analog to the way GLP-1 drugs work. They create these byproducts that stimulate GLP-1 like hormones, which can help you have even more satiety.”

It also has the benefit of providing protein, another concern for GLP-1 users. HealthSense may be used anywhere traditional flour is used, Zammer said, including tortillas, pizza crust, bread products, and even in some baking mixes. One area where it’s really taking off, she said, is pasta. There are many pastas made with a combination of semolina and spring wheat, such as macaroni noodles. 

“Those foods tend to be the comfort foods, they’re foods that people tend to gravitate toward,” Zammer said. “So we’re seeing high-fiber wheat flours being adopted simply because many manufacturers are looking for better-for-you options where they’re able to deliver more protein and more fiber without impacting the taste or texture at all.”

While HealthSense is a smart part of Bay State Milling’s overall portfolio, the industry is at an inflection point in part because of GLP-1 but also because of a move away from artificial ingredients.

“Consumers are moving away from additives and want natural, clean label ingredients,” Levangie said. “This is why we are focused on unique varietals that have inherent nutrition and don’t require any additives or fortification.”

As interest is growing in HealthSense, the milling company is looking to expand its grower base of high amylose wheat, Zammer said. 

“We’ve expanded the geographies in which we grow it so we’re now growing it in multiple regions around the US,” she said. “And we’re expanding into different classes as well. We’re working very closely with these farmers to expand the supply chain as we ramp up for this growth. It’s always tricky to grow your market and grow your supply chain at the same time.”

Even if GLP-1 medications disappear tomorrow, the milling and baking industries will continue moving toward more nutrient-dense ingredients. 

“We expect to see a shift from the traditional wheat that we grind to this more value-added, better-for-you variety,” Zammer said. “It’s really a sky’s the limit in terms of how big of a proportion of our business this becomes or how big a proportion of the milling industry at large.”

Bay State Milling has a broad portfolio of products that could be considered GLP-1 “friendly,” including high-protein oats and edible seeds.

“In some ways, we’ve been preparing for this for a while because we’ve diversified into these businesses over the last 10 years or so,” Zammer said. “Consumers are making a shift in eating and protein is undeniable in terms of what people have been seeking out in their foods.”

If GLP-1 usage is an opportunity to support a healthier population, it’s something the industry must encourage and find a way to participate in, Ball said. 

“I think our millers have a great opportunity to talk about fiber, enrichment, fortification, whole grains and all the options people have,” she said. “We have the privilege of supporting American consumers’ health.”