MANHATTAN, KANSAS, US — The first widespread look at the quality and production potential of the 2025 hard red winter wheat crop in the top US production state gets underway May 13.

Sixty-six wheat scouts from across the wheat chain were set to depart Manhattan at dawn and follow one of six color-coded routes enroute to Colby, visually appraising and measuring the development of wheat in each county along the way in service of generating a winter wheat production estimate for Kansas.

Participants include growers, commercial elevator operators, millers, procurement specialists, bakers and representatives from academia and the media. Professionals from the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) and National Agricultural Statistics Service who traditionally take part are absent due to government cutbacks that eliminated travel budgets.

The group gathered in Manhattan the afternoon of May 12 for an orientation led by Aaron Harries of Kansas Wheat. Harries told the group, which includes many industry newcomers and first time tour-goers, that they “picked a good year to come since there’s no rain or snow in the forecast, which means no mud.”

This week’s trek is the 67th annual hard winter wheat tour. The tour is sponsored by the Wheat Quality Council and planned by its executive vice president, Dave Green. He said scouts will most likely see a large healthy crop that benefited from April and May rains after a lengthy dry period, and that more rain is needed before harvest for optimal grain fill.

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“It started raining at the right time, but the crop probably needs more rain at the right time to finish it off,” he said. “Everybody is pretty upbeat about it compared to last year. The government today estimated Kansas at 50 bushels an acre, which makes sense compared with the high 30s last year. I’m a little worried about how hot it’s going to be the next few days. I’m afraid we’re going to see fabulous wheat, then people will start squawking about needing more rain, about conditions being too hot, too windy.”

The USDA on May 12 estimated 6.9 million harvested acres with a 50 bushels per acre average would generate a 345-million-bushel crop for Kansas.

Green suggested wheat in northern and central Kansas might be in better condition than the northwest and southwest corners of the state where rainfall totals were comparatively lacking.

“Typically on this tour, the wheat condition goes along with the Palmer index, the recent rainfall index, so, as is normal, those areas that didn’t get as much may not look as good,” he said. “But there is still time before harvest for more rain. I think we’re going to see pretty good wheat, but start to hear concerns already about dryness here at the start of a dry week.”

The six routes are color coded and followed annually to provide simple historical comparisons for each day and for the full tour. One route on Day 1 will venture into southern Nebraska and one on Day 2 will drop down into Oklahoma where a recent estimate pegged production down 7% from 2024. A representative with Colorado Wheat will provide a virtual update on that state’s crop.

Along with a larger crop than last year, expectations were that scouts could see plenty of wheat plants infected with wheat streak mosaic, a viral disease spread by wheat curl mites. The mosaic complex also includes triticum mosaic virus, high plains mosaic and brome. Mosaic is characterized by a blotchy, psychedelic pattern of yellow and green on the leaves of wheat.

The disease can be devastating to wheat in the high plains, said Kelsey Anderson Onofre with the Department of Plant Pathology at Kansas State University.

“We can see it in other parts of the country and other parts of the world, but really Kansas is ground zero for this particular disease,” she said. “It’s a complex of viruses, all vectored by the wheat curl mite. They’re really small, near microscopic, so you can’t really see them in the field. But they pack a lot of punch. These mites are kind of the key to the puzzle for wheat streak mosaic virus. If we have a lot of mites at the end of the season, and we control all of the grasses and volunteer wheat around the field, those mites will die off. Unfortunately, that’s not what happened this year.  

"Over summer, they survive on grass, volunteer wheat, some alternative crops like barley and that bridges them to the fall established crop. They can do a lot of damage. They reproduce quickly and we can have a hundred million of them in a wheat field at the end of a season. If weather stays warm and it doesn’t cool off, they can do a lot of damage.”