WASHINGTON, DC, US — The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) in its May 12 Crop Production report forecast 2025 winter wheat production at 1.382 billion bushels, up 2.4% from 1.349 billion bushels in 2024, as an expected higher average yield more than offset slightly lower harvested acreage.     

The average winter wheat yield in 2025 was forecast at 53.7 bushels per acre, up 2 bushels from 51.7 bushels in 2024. Area harvested for grain was forecast at 25.7 million acres, down 1.5% from the prior year, with 77% of planted area expected to be harvested for grain compared with 78% in 2024. 

Hard red winter wheat production was forecast at 784.268 million bushels, up 13.829 million bushels, or 1.8%, from 770.439 million bushels in 2024. Soft red winter wheat production was forecast at 344.673 million bushels, up 2.234 million bushels, or 0.7%, from 342.439 million bushels in 2024. Soft white winter wheat outturn was forecast at 232.084 million bushels, up 15.591 million bushels, or 7%, from 216.493 million bushels last year, with hard white winter wheat at 20.585 million bushels, up 1.026 million bushels, or 5%, from 19.559 million bushels. 

The USDA winter wheat forecast was above the average of trade expectations, as were USDA hard red and soft red and white winter wheat forecasts. 

Winter-wheat-production-0525_SOSLAND-PUBLISHING-CO._e-copy.jpgCredit: ©SOSLAND PUBLISHING CO.


Winter wheat production in Kansas was forecast at 345 million bushels, up 37.55 million bushels, or 12%, from 307.45 million bushels in 2024. Oklahoma production was forecast at 107.25 million bushels, down 1.05 million bushels, or 1%, from 108.3 million bushels in 2024. Of the seven major hard red winter wheat states, production was forecast higher than in 2024 in Colorado, Montana and Kansas but lower in Nebraska, South Dakota, Texas and Oklahoma. 

The USDA said in its assessment of the May 6 US Drought Monitor that 88% of Nebraska wheat was in areas of drought, 59% of South Dakota, 55% of Montana and 41% of Kansas. 

The Wheat Quality Council’s hard red winter wheat tour will run May 12-15, mainly across the state of Kansas.

KC hard red winter wheat futures closed down about 6¢ to 9¢ a bushel following the 11:00 a.m. Central Daylight Time release of the USDA data, with Chicago soft red winter wheat futures down about 5¢ to 6¢ a bushel and Minneapolis spring wheat futures down about 1¢ to 9¢ a bushel. Several months on all three markets set fresh contract lows.

Winter durum production in Arizona was forecast at 4.972 million bushels, down 1.35 million bushels, or 21%, from 6.322 million bushels in 2024, and in California at 1.8 million bushels, down 684,000 bushels, or 28%, from 2.484 million bushels.

In its May 12 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, the USDA projected 2025 all US wheat production at 1.921 billion bushels, down 50 million bushels from 2024-25, indicating 2025 spring wheat production near 539 million bushels, up 17 million bushels from 2024.